Discounting Disentangled
Discounting Disentangled
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DOI：
10.1257/pol.20160240
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Nesje, Frikk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Drupp, Moritz A.;Freeman, Mark C.;Nesje, Frikk
投资于长期公共项目的经济价值对社会贴现率（SDR）高度敏感。我们调查了200多位专家，将对无风险SDR的分歧分解为其组成部分，包括纯粹的时间偏好、财富效应和资本回报率。我们发现，大多数专家不遵循简单的拉姆齐规则，一个广泛使用的理论贴现框架时，建议特别提款权。尽管在贴现程序和点值上存在分歧，但我们在专家中获得了令人惊讶的共识，超过四分之三的人认为2%的无风险SDR中位数是可以接受的。
The economic values of investing in long-term public projects are highly sensitive to the social discount rate (SDR). We surveyed over 200 experts to disentangle disagreement on the risk-free SDR into its component parts, including pure time preference, the wealth effect, and return to capital. We show that the majority of experts do not follow the simple Ramsey Rule, a widely used theoretical discounting framework, when recommending SDRs. Despite disagreement on discounting procedures and point values, we obtain a surprising degree of consensus among experts, with more than three-quarters finding the median risk-free SDR of 2 percent acceptable.