Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems
Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1691
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Pauly, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheung, William W. L.;Sarmiento, Jorge L.;Pauly, Daniel
温度、氧含量和其他海洋生物地球化学性质的变化直接影响海洋呼吸水生物的生理生态（1-3）。以前的研究表明，最突出的生物反应是分布（4-6），物候（7，8）和生产力（9）的变化。理论和经验观察也支持这一假设，即变暖和氧气减少将减少海洋鱼类的体型（10-12）。然而，这些变化会在多大程度上加剧气候和海洋变化对全球海洋生态系统的影响，这一点仍未得到探讨。在这里，我们采用了一个模型来研究超过600种海洋鱼类由于分布，丰度和身体大小的变化而产生的综合生物反应。该模型有一个明确的生态生理学，扩散，分布和人口动态的表示（3）。我们发现，在高排放情景下，从2000年到2050年，全球平均最大体重预计将减少14-24%。这种萎缩约有一半是由于分布和丰度的变化，其余的是由于生理变化。热带和中纬度地区将受到严重影响，平均减少20%以上。我们的研究结果为理解气候变化对海洋生态系统的综合影响提供了新的视角。
Changes in temperature, oxygen content and other ocean biogeochemical properties directly affect the ecophysiology of marine water-breathing organisms(1-3). Previous studies suggest that the most prominent biological responses are changes in distribution(4-6), phenology(7,8) and productivity(9). Both theory and empirical observations also support the hypothesis that warming and reduced oxygen will reduce body size of marine fishes(10-12). However, the extent to which such changes would exacerbate the impacts of climate and ocean changes on global marine ecosystems remains unexplored. Here, we employ a model to examine the integrated biological responses of over 600 species of marine fishes due to changes in distribution, abundance and body size. The model has an explicit representation of ecophysiology, dispersal, distribution, and population dynamics(3). We show that assemblage-averaged maximum body weight is expected to shrink by 14-24% globally from 2000 to 2050 under a high-emission scenario. About half of this shrinkage is due to change in distribution and abundance, the remainder to changes in physiology. The tropical and intermediate latitudinal areas will be heavily impacted, with an average reduction of more than 20%. Our results provide a new dimension to understanding the integrated impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.