Why is Change so Slow? Assessing Prospects for United Nations Security Council Reform
Why is Change so Slow? Assessing Prospects for United Nations Security Council Reform
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为什么变化如此缓慢？
DOI：
10.1080/17487870.2017.1305903
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Thomas Doerfler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Madeleine O. Hosli;Thomas Doerfler
本文探讨了联合国成员国模式的变化如何影响联合国安理会理事会机构改革的前景。首先，我们概述了一个基于路径依赖，否决者分析和社会选择理论的理论框架。其次，我们提供了决策概率的计算，并表明，较高的投票门槛降低了以非线性方式赢得联盟的机会。第三，探讨安理会改革的具体决策程序，以及哪些行为体可以阻挠改革。我们的结论是，不仅不同的偏好，但早期建立的障碍与成员的增长相结合，“锁定”目前的制度安排。
The article explores how changed patterns of UN membership affected the prospects for UN Security Council institutional reform. First, we outline a theoretical framework based on path dependency, veto player analysis and social choice theory. Second, we offer calculations of decision probability and show that a higher voting threshold lowers chances of winning coalitions in a non-linear fashion. Third, we explore the specific decision-making procedures for UNSC reform and which actors can block reform. We conclude that not only diverging preferences, but that hurdles established early on combined with membership growth have ‘locked in’ the current institutional arrangement.