Climate, mosquito indices and the epidemiology of dengue fever in Trinidad (2002-2004)
Climate, mosquito indices and the epidemiology of dengue fever in Trinidad (2002-2004)
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DOI：
10.1179/136485907x157059
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chen, A. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chadee, D. D.;Shivnauth, B.;Chen, A. A.
2002年1月至2004年12月期间，在西印度群岛特立尼达进行了一项以人口为基础的研究，研究气候和蚊子指数对登革热和登革出血热发病率的影响。2002年，DF的发病率为5.05例/1000人，主要是由于一次重大暴发，但2004年下降到0.49例/1000人。每月埃及伊蚊（L.）Breteau指数（BI）在3年的研究期间没有下降，而是从2002年的平均值29上升到2004年的平均值36，并存在季节变化（在干湿季节，BI分别为30 ~ 46和20 ~ 34）。没有观察到温度与登革热或登革出血热发病率之间的显著相关性，但发现降雨量与登革热发病率显著相关，在研究年份的两个年份中，6月至11月之间存在明确定义的“登革热季节”。2002年以来登革热传播的明显下降似乎主要归因于一般人群中“群体免疫”的发展，而不是媒介控制的努力。由于新的血清型的引入或群体免疫力的减弱可能导致登革热在特立尼达的爆炸性流行，因此显然需要继续进行监测。
Between January 2002 and December 2004, a population-based study on the effects of climate and mosquito indices on the incidences of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) was conducted in Trinidad, West Indies. The incidence of DF was 5.05 cases/1000 population in 2002, largely as the result of a major outbreak, but declined to 0.49 case/1000 in 2004. The monthly Aedes aegypti (L.) Breteau indices (BI) did not decline over the 3-year study period, however, but increased from a mean of 29 in 2002 to one of 36 in 2004, with seasonal variations (BI of 30-46 and 20-34 were recorded in the wet and dry seasons, respectively). No significant correlations were observed between temperature and DF or DHF incidence but rainfall was found to be significantly correlated with DF incidence, with a clearly defined 'dengue season', between June and November, in two of the study years. The apparent decline in dengue transmission since 2002 appears to be largely attributable to the development of 'herd immunity' in the general population and not to the attempts at vector control. Since the introduction of new serotypes or the fading of the herd immunity could lead to an explosive epidemic of dengue in Trinidad, there is clearly a need for continued surveillance.