Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality
Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1510109
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Wilkinson, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Milojevic, Ai;Armstrong, Ben G.;Wilkinson, Paul
背景技术背景：研究人员已经研究了在受到城市热岛效应（UHI）影响的社区中，热死亡风险是否会增加，但还没有确定凉爽和炎热地区之间对热和冷的敏感性的差异程度，我们称之为对UHI的适应。我们开发了一些方法来检测和量化对热和冷的适应程度，相关的死亡率有关的城市热岛异常，并将这些方法应用于伦敦，英国。研究方法：案例交叉分析进行了1993-2006年的死亡率数据从伦敦城市热岛十分位组定义的异常从伦敦平均模拟空气温度在1公里网格分辨率。我们估计了如何UHI异常修改多余的死亡率在寒冷和炎热的日子伦敦整体和位移的固定形状的温度死亡率函数（“转移样条”模型）。我们还比较了所观察到的协会与那些预期下没有或完全适应UHI.RESULTS：在炎热与正常的日子死亡的相对风险差异很小，整个UHI十分组。1摄氏度的UHI异常乘以热死的风险为1.004（95%CI：0.950，1.061）（相互作用率比）相比，如果没有驯化的预期值为1.070（1.057，1.082）。相应的UHI相互作用为冷分别为1.020（0.979，1.063）和1.030（1.026，1.034）（实际与预期下没有驯化，分别）。拟合样条曲线的热量转移小，在城市高血压十分之一组，再次表明适应。对于寒冷，样条移动有点在没有驯化的方向，但并不排除acupatization.CONCLUSIONS：我们提出了两种分析方法，估计与UHI的热和冷相关的死亡率负担的驯化程度。伦敦的结果表明，相对完整的适应夏季高温相关的死亡率的热岛效应，但不太明确的证据冷相关的死亡率。
BACKGROUND: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI.OBJECTIVES: We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat-and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Methods: Case-crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993-2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function ("shifted spline" model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI.RESULTS: The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1 degrees C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization.CONCLUSIONS: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat-and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat-related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold-related mortality.