A fuzzy analytic network process method for risk prioritization in freeway PPP projects: an Iranian case study
A fuzzy analytic network process method for risk prioritization in freeway PPP projects: an Iranian case study
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DOI：
10.3846/13923730.2015.1051104
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发表时间：
2015-07
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
A. Valipour;N. Yahaya;N. Noor;Simona Kildiene;H. Sarvari;A. Mardani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Valipour;N. Yahaya;N. Noor;Simona Kildiene;H. Sarvari;A. Mardani
风险评估是公私伙伴关系（PPP）项目取得成功的最重要因素之一。建立了高速公路项目风险之间的关系。每一种风险的发生都可能恶化其他风险的影响，例如金融风险对建筑风险的负面影响。本文旨在优先考虑重大风险的高速公路PPP项目应用模糊分析网络过程（FANP）的方法，克服了相互依赖性和反馈的问题，不同的风险排序方案。本研究通过文献综述、访谈和问卷调查收集了高速公路PPP项目领域的相关数据。所获得的结果表明，金融、法律的和政治风险是最重要的风险类别，尽管设计不当、所授土地价值的变化和特许权的终止是最重要的风险。研究结果有助于加强发展中国家在高速公路PPP项目中的风险管理能力。
Risk assessment is one of the most important factors in achieving success in public-private partnership (PPP) projects. Some relationships between risks in freeway projects have been established. The occurrence of each risk can worsen the effects of others such as a negative impact of financial risks on construction risks. This paper is aimed at prioritizing significant risks in freeway PPP projects applying a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method for overcoming the problems of interdependencies and feedback among different risk-ranking alternatives. Data on the study have been collected through a literature review, an interview and a questionnaire survey distributed to experts in the field of freeway PPP projects. The obtained results have shown that financial, legal and political risks are the most significant groups, although improper design, changes in the value of granted lands and the termination of concession are the most important risks. The findings help with strengthening the capabilities of developing countries for risk management in freeway PPP projects.