Feasibility of Seasonal Forecasts Inferred from Multiple GCM Simulations
Feasibility of Seasonal Forecasts Inferred from Multiple GCM Simulations
复制标题
从多个 GCM 模拟推断季节性预测的可行性
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Miyakoda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Stern;K. Miyakoda
摘要假定SST是大气的主要下边界强迫，观测到的SST被指定用于大气环流模式（GCM）的集合模拟。该集合由9个不同初始条件的“十年”周期组成，选择在1979年1月1日至1981年1月1日之间，并整合了约10年。主要目的是探讨利用GCMS进行季节预报的可行性。系综的各个成员再现彼此的解的程度（即，再现性）可以被视为潜在可预测性的指示。此外，与观测相比，特定的大气环流模型产生现实解决方案的能力也必须作为可预测性问题的一部分加以处理。再现性的量度可以从系综成员之间的分布来评估。标准化扩散指数σn/σs可以定义在空间和时间上的任何点，作为由气候变化标准化的集合（σn）的变率。
Abstract Assuming that SST provides the major lower boundary forcing for the atmosphere, observed SSTs are prescribed for an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations. The ensemble consists of 9 “decadal” runs with different initial conditions chosen between 1 January 1979 and 1 January 1981 and integrated about 10 years. The main objective is to explore the feasibility of seasonal forecasts using GCMS. The extent to which the individual members of the ensemble reproduce the solutions of each other (i.e., reproducibility) may be taken as an indication of potential predictability. In addition, the ability of a particular GCM to produce realistic solutions, when compared with observation, must also be addressed as part of the predictability problem. A measure of reproducibility may be assessed from the spread among ensemble members. A normalized spread index, σn/σs, can be defined at any point in space and time, as the variability of the ensemble (σn) normalized by the climatologic...