Real Wages and the Family: Adjusting Real Wages to Changing Demography in Pre-Modern England
Real Wages and the Family: Adjusting Real Wages to Changing Demography in Pre-Modern England
复制标题
实际工资和家庭：根据前现代英格兰人口结构的变化调整实际工资
DOI：
10.1016/j.eeh.2012.08.001
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Eric B. Schneider
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eric B. Schneider
本文使用的人口统计数据来自箭牌等人。的（1997年）26个英国教区的家庭重组，以调整艾伦（2001年）的真实的工资，以适应现代早期英国不断变化的人口结构。使用产次累进比（生育率的衡量标准）和儿童和父母的年龄别死亡率，预测了1650-1700年和1750-1800年两个参考期的模范家庭。这些模型产生了两个层次的有趣的结果。在单个家庭层面上，我们可以衡量不同家庭的真实的工资在家庭生命周期中随着额外孩子的出生而发生的变化。在总体水平上，我们可以使用蒙特卡罗模拟来预测数千个家庭，从而创建经济中家庭真实的工资中位数的现实分布。有两个主要发现。首先，怀孕和哺乳不会对家庭收入产生周期性影响。相反，大多数家庭的福利比率在整个家庭生命周期中稳步下降，直到子女开始离开家庭，福利比率才上升。其次，艾伦的真实的工资低估或匹配预测的经人口统计调整的分布的中位数。
This paper uses demographic data drawn from Wrigley et al.'s (1997) family reconstitutions of 26 English parishes to adjust Allen's (2001) real wages to the changing demography of early modern England. Using parity progression ratios (a fertility measure) and age specific mortality for children and parents, model families are predicted in two reference periods 1650–1700 and 1750–1800. These models yield two levels of interesting results. At the individual family level, we can measure how different families' real wages changed over the family life cycle as additional children were born. At the aggregate level, we can predict thousands of families using Monte Carlo simulation, creating a realistic distribution of median family real wages in the economy. There are two main findings. First, pregnancy and lactation do not create cyclical effects in the family's income. Instead, most families' welfare ratios decline steadily across the family life cycle until children begin to leave the household, increasing the welfare ratios. Second, Allen's real wages understate or match the median of the predicted demography-adjusted distributions.