GLOBAL TRENDS OF MEASURED SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE
GLOBAL TRENDS OF MEASURED SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE
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DOI：
10.1029/jd092id11p13345
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发表时间：
1987-11-20
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
LEBEDEFF, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
HANSEN, J;LEBEDEFF, S
我们分析了1880-1985年期间主要集中在可用的气象站的地面气温数据。在中高纬度地区，距离小于1000 km的站点的温度变化具有高度相关性;在低纬度地区，附近站点的相关性福尔斯随着距离的增加而下降得更快。我们将联合收割机的数据结合起来，以提供准确的长期变化。误差估计部分基于对实际站点分布如何准确地再现具有现实变率的三维大气环流模式产生的全球数据集中的温度变化的研究。我们发现，有意义的全球温度变化，可以获得在过去的世纪，尽管事实上，气象站主要局限于大陆和岛屿的位置。结果表明，在过去的世纪，全球变暖约0.5°-0.7 ° C，两个半球的变暖幅度相似;北方半球的结果与其他几个研究人员发现的结果相似。1965年至1980年的强烈变暖趋势使1980年和1981年的全球平均气温达到仪器记录时期的最高水平。近年来的暖期与以1940年为中心的早期暖期有质的不同;早期的暖集中在北方高纬度地区，而最近的暖则更具全球性。我们提出了选定的图表和地图的温度变化在每个八个纬度带。作者提供了一个计算机磁带，记录了推导出的区域和全球温度变化。
We analyze surface air temperature data from available meteorological stations with principal focus on the period 1880–1985. The temperature changes at mid‐ and high latitude stations separated by less than 1000 km are shown to be highly correlated; at low latitudes the correlation falls off more rapidly with distance for nearby stations. We combine the station data in a way which is designed to provide accurate long‐term variations. Error estimates are based in part on studies of how accurately the actual station distributions are able to reproduce temperature change in a global data set produced by a three‐dimensional general circulation model with realistic variability. We find that meaningful global temperature change can be obtained for the past century, despite the fact that the meteorological stations are confined mainly to continental and island locations. The results indicate a global warming of about 0.5°–0.7°C in the past century, with warming of similar magnitude in both hemispheres; the northern hemisphere result is similar to that found by several other investigators. A strong warming trend between 1965 and 1980 raised the global mean temperature in 1980 and 1981 to the highest level in the period of instrumental records. The warm period in recent years differs qualitatively from the earlier warm period centered about 1940; the earlier warming was focused at high northern latitudes, while the recent warming is more global. We present selected graphs and maps of the temperature change in each of the eight latitude zones. A computer tape of the derived regional and global temperature changes is available from the authors.