Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study
Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study
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DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00326-0
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发表时间：
2022-02-01
影响因子：
25.7
通讯作者：
Zhang, Qiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yang;Tong, Dan;Zhang, Qiang
每年有超过300万人死于因暴露于室外PM2.5空气污染而引起的疾病，其中超过四分之一的过早死亡发生在中国。除了针对污染排放的清洁空气政策外，旨在减少化石燃料二氧化碳排放的气候政策（例如，避免1.5摄氏度的变暖）也可能大大改善空气质量和公众健康。然而，在中国，没有对不同能源途径和地方清洁空气管理决策下的公共卫生结果进行全面核算。我们的目标是开发一种综合方法，用于量化不同气候、能源和清洁空气政策情景的健康共同效益，并评估气候和清洁空气政策与中国未来健康负担之间的关系，中国人口老龄化将进一步加剧空气污染的影响。方法我们使用了一个以中国为重点的综合评估模型和一个动态排放预测模型，预测了中国未来在一系列全球气候目标情景下的空气质量（1.5摄氏度，2摄氏度，国家确定的贡献[NDC]，没有野心，基线和4.5摄氏度）和国家清洁空气行动（称为2015年污染，当前污染和雄心勃勃的污染）。然后，我们使用空气质量模型和2019年全球疾病、伤害和风险因素负担研究的最新流行病学浓度响应函数，在情景矩阵中评估了PM2.5空气污染对健康的影响。（例如，根据目前的NDC承诺），与2015年的基准年相比，到2050年，与PM2.5空气污染相关的中国死亡人数可能不会总是减少-而且可能经常增加，不管清洁空气政策和空气质量的改善。例如，在跟踪中国当前NDC承诺并使用最佳污染控制技术的情景中，（目标污染和NDC目标情景），到2030年，中国与PM2.5相关的死亡人数将略有下降，每年减少至123万人（95% CI 0.95-1.51）从125万起（1.04-1.46），但到2050年不会进一步下降（121万，0.86-1-60），尽管人口加权空气质量持续大幅改善（从2030年的27.2 μ g/m3至2050年的16.0 μ g/m3）。在我们的许多情景中，空气质量改善和PM2.5相关死亡人数增加的相反趋势揭示了未来中国人口年龄增长所需的额外努力。这些情景包括雄心勃勃的清洁空气政策，并达到国际气候目标，以避免1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度的变暖（目标污染-2 ℃情景和目标污染-1.5 ℃情景），我们观察到，与2050年NDC目标相比，中国PM2.5相关死亡人数大幅减少，为32 - 55万人，和年龄标准化死亡率每年每10万人口减少10.2-14.2例死亡。解释我们的结果表明，雄心勃勃的气候政策（即将全球平均气温上升限制在远低于2摄氏度）和低碳能源转型加上严格的清洁空气政策，对于大幅减少中国空气污染对人类健康的影响是必要的，不管社会经济假设如何。我们的发现可以帮助政策制定者了解气候政策与公共卫生之间的关键联系。版权所有（C）2022作者。爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Background Over 3 million people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean-air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (eg, to avoid 1.5 degrees C of warming) might also greatly improve air quality and public health. However, no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes has been done under different energy pathways and local clean-air management decisions in China. We aimed to develop an integrated method for quantifying the health co-benefits from different climate, energy, and clean-air policy scenarios and to assess the relationship between climate and clean-air policies and future health burdens in China, where an ageing population will further exacerbate the effects of air pollution.Methods For this modelling study, we used a China-focused integrated assessment model and a dynamic emission projection model to project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, national determined contributions [NDC], unambitious, baseline, and 4.5 degrees C) and national clean-air actions (termed 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluated the health effects of PM2.5 air pollution in the scenario matrix using the air quality model and the latest epidemiological concentration- response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.Findings We found that, without ambitious climate mitigation (eg, under current NDC pledge), Chinese deaths related to PM2.5 air pollution might not always decrease-and might often grow-by 2050 compared with the base year of 2015, regardless of clean-air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in the scenario that tracks China's current NDC pledge and uses the best available pollution control technologies (the ambitious-pollution and NDC goals scenario), PM2.5-related deaths in China would decrease slightly by 2030 to 1.23 million per year (95% CI 0.95-1.51) from 1.25 million (1.04-1.46) in 2015, but would not decrease further by 2050 (1.21 million, 0.86-1-60) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (from 27.2 mu g/m(3) in 2030 to 16.0 mu g/m(3) in 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM2.5-related deaths in many of our scenarios revealed the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the increasing age of China's population in the future. With the scenarios that included ambitious clean-air policies and met international climate goals to avoid 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming (the ambitious-pollution-2 degrees C goals scenario and the ambitious-pollution-1.5 degrees C goals scenario), we observed substantial decreases in China's PM2.5-related deaths of 0.32-0.55 million deaths compared with NDC goals in 2050, and age-standardised death rates decreased by 10.2-14.2 deaths per 100 000 population per year.Interpretation Our results show that ambitious climate policies (ie, limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C) and low-carbon energy transitions coupled with stringent clean-air policies are necessary to substantially reduce the human health effects from air pollution in China, regardless of socioeconomic assumptions. Our findings could help policy makers understand the crucial links between climate policy and public health. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.