Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication
Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761
复制
发表时间：
2016-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Beven, Keith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beven, Keith
本文讨论了水文系统分析和建模中与不确定性和非平稳性的多个来源相关的一些问题。不同形式的偶然性，认识，语义和本体论的不确定性的定义。潜在的认知不确定性，以诱导虚假信息的校准数据和任意的非平稳模型误差特性，并在预测未来的惊喜，讨论了其他形式的非平稳性的背景下。有人建议，一个条件树是用来明确的假设，任何评估的不确定性。这也提供了一个审计线索，为决策者提供证据。
This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.