The Proof of the Planning Is in the Platting: An Evaluation of Florida's Hurricane Exposure Mitigation Planning Mandate
The Proof of the Planning Is in the Platting: An Evaluation of Florida's Hurricane Exposure Mitigation Planning Mandate
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DOI：
10.1080/01944360802229612
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Baker, Earl J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deyle, Robert E.;Chapin, Timothy S.;Baker, Earl J.
问题：佛罗里达1985年的《增长管理法》要求该州的沿海社区在其综合计划中纳入两类飓风危险区的政策：引导居民远离沿海高危险区（CHHA），并在较大的飓风脆弱区（HVZ）内保持疏散时间。州法律要求地方政府在州批准地方计划后一年内采取措施实施这些政策。社区是否遵守了这些国家规定？目的：这项研究的目的是确定在何种程度上符合国家的政策授权，在这方面的成功程度可以解释当地规划地图和政策的质量计划后的住宅开发强度。研究方法：我们对发展趋势进行了图形分析，并对CHHA内外的计划前和计划后住宅开发进行了准实验分析，并分析了计划质量和计划后住宅开发强度之间的相关性。我们还进行了个案研究访谈。结果和结论：我们发现，在佛罗里达的74个市和15个沿海县中，大多数居民遭受飓风洪水危害的情况在该州批准当地综合计划后大幅增加。在大多数沿海社区采用计划后，CHHA内的住宅开发并没有放缓。我们发现，更好的地图和更强的政策与较低的规划后开发强度，但政策质量的影响，虽然不是地图质量的影响，消失后，控制规划前的开发强度。这些结果可能部分是由于在通过计划之前批准的开发的归属，预先存在的分区权利，以及佛罗里达1995年的财产权法。练习要点：旨在管理关键地区发展的国家规划任务很可能只会产生很小的影响，因为先前的权利以及现有地方规划政策和土地开发条例的法律的和政治惰性。研究支持：研究得到了国家海洋和大气管理局海洋赠款办公室、佛罗里达社区事务部和佛罗里达州立大学的DeVoe摩尔中心的支持。
Problem: Florida's 1985 Growth Management Act required the state's coastal communities to include policies for two types of hurricane hazard zones in their comprehensive plans: to direct populations away from coastal high hazard areas (CHHAs) and to maintain evacuation times within larger hurricane vulnerability zones (HVZs). State law requires local governments to initiate measures to implement these policies within one year of state approval of the local plan. Have communities complied with these state mandates? Purpose: This research aims to determine the extent to which post-plan residential development intensities within hurricane hazard zones conform to the state's policy mandate and the degree to which success in this regard can be explained by the quality of local plan maps and policies. Methods: We conducted graphical analysis of development trends, and undertook quasi-experimental analysis of pre- and post-plan residential development inside and outside CHHAs, as well as analyzing correlations between plan quality and post-plan residential development intensity. We also conducted interviews for case studies. Results and conclusions: We found residential exposure to hurricane flood hazards to have increased substantially in the majority of 74 municipalities and 15 coastal counties in Florida after the state approved local comprehensive plans. Residential development inside CHHAs did not slow after plans were adopted by most of these coastal communities. We found better maps and stronger policies to be correlated with lower post-plan development intensity, but the policy quality effect, though not the map quality effect, disappeared after controlling for pre-plan development intensities. These results may be due in part to vesting of development approved prior to adopting the plans, pre-existing zoning entitlements, and Florida's 1995 property rights law. Takeaway for practice: State planning mandates aimed at managing development in critical areas are likely to have only marginal effects because of prior entitlements and the legal and political inertia of existing local plan policies and land development regulations. Research support: Research support was received from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Sea Grant, the Florida Department of Community Affairs, and Florida State University's DeVoe Moore Center.