An integrated economic model of multiple types and uses of water
An integrated economic model of multiple types and uses of water
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DOI：
10.1002/2013wr014750
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发表时间：
2014-05
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Jonas Luckmann;H. Grethe;S. Mcdonald;A. Orlov;K. Siddig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jonas Luckmann;H. Grethe;S. Mcdonald;A. Orlov;K. Siddig
在世界许多地方，水资源短缺是一个日益严重的问题，水资源管理已成为许多国家政治经济议程上的一个重要问题。由于水资源在大多数经济活动中的使用，水资源的分配往往是一个复杂的问题，涉及不同的经济主体和部门，可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型已被证明是有用的，以分析水资源分配问题，虽然他们的适应，包括水仍然是相对欠发达。本文描述了一个以水为中心的综合CGE模型（STAGE_W），该模型包括多种类型和用途的水，并首次将废水回收以及微咸水地下水的提供作为具有特定成本结构的单独、独立的活动。该模型所提供的见解与应用到以色列的水资源部门，假设可用于经济的淡水资源减少了50%。我们分析了以色列经济如何应对这种冲击，如果它减少饮用水供应相比，在海水淡化部门的进一步投资。结果表明，在这两种情景下，对经济的影响都略有负面。与直觉相反，通过海水淡化为经济提供额外的饮用水并不能实质性地减少负面结果。这主要是由于海水淡化的费用很高，目前这方面的费用是有补贴的，对家庭群体的负面福利影响取决于这些补贴的资金来源。
Water scarcity is an increasing problem in many parts of the world and the management of water has become an important issue on the political economy agenda in many countries. As water is used in most economic activities and the allocation of water is often a complex problem involving different economic agents and sectors, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been proven useful to analyze water allocation problems, although their adaptation to include water is still relatively undeveloped. This paper provides a description of an integrated water‐focused CGE model (STAGE_W) that includes multiple types and uses of water, and for the first time, the reclamation of wastewater as well as the provision of brackish groundwater as separate, independent activities with specific cost structures. The insights provided by the model are illustrated with an application to the Israeli water sector assuming that freshwater resources available to the economy are cut by 50%. We analyze how the Israeli economy copes with this shock if it reduces potable water supply compared with further investments in the desalination sector. The results demonstrate that the effects on the economy are slightly negative under both scenarios. Counter intuitively, the provision of additional potable water to the economy through desalination does not substantively reduce the negative outcomes. This is mainly due to the high costs of desalination, which are currently subsidized, with the distribution of the negative welfare effect over household groups dependent on how these subsidies are financed.