The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008-2016: Estimation and distributional implications
The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008-2016: Estimation and distributional implications
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.020
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Graichen, Verena
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cludius, Johanna;Hermann, Hauke;Graichen, Verena
近年来，可再生能源发电在德国经历了相当大的发展。主要负责这一发展的是德国可再生能源法案(Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz，EEG)。本文考虑了脑电对不同用电用户的再分配意义。利用时间序列回归分析，我们发现风电和光伏发电使现货市场电价在2010年大幅下降6(原文如此)/兆瓦时，在2012年上升到10(原文如此)/兆瓦时。我们使用这些结果来构建功绩顺序效应的短期预测工具，预计2016年将达到14-16(原文如此)/兆瓦时。另一方面，EEG的成本以附加费的形式转嫁给消费者。我们的发现突出了当前脑电设计下的重大再分配转移。特别是，一些能源密集型行业正受益于较低的批发电价，同时在很大程度上免除了该计划的成本。我们亦特别指出，我们的研究结果对EEG改革的其他范畴有影响，例如有足够的薪酬机制，以确保在该计划下作出有效的运作和投资决定。更广泛地说，这些发现表明，政策制定者需要将分配评估纳入政策设计和实施。(C)2014爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Generation from renewable energy sources in Germany has experienced a considerable uptake in recent years. Mainly responsible for this development is the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz, EEG). This paper considers redistributive implications of the EEG for different electricity consumers. Using time-series regression analysis, we show that electricity generation by wind and PV has reduced spot market prices considerably by 6 (sic)/MWh in 2010 rising to 10 (sic)/MWh in 2012. We use these results to build a near-term forecasting tool for merit order effects, projected to reach 14-16 (sic)/MWh in 2016. On the other hand, the costs of the EEG are passed forward to consumers in the form of a surcharge. Our findings highlight significant redistributive transfers under the current design of the EEG. In particular, some energy-intensive industries are benefiting from lower wholesale electricity prices whilst being largely exempted from contributing to the costs of the scheme. We also highlight implications of our results for other areas for reform of the EEG, such as adequate remuneration mechanisms that ensure efficient operation and investment decisions are made under the scheme. More generally, these findings suggest that policy makers need to integrate distributional assessments into policy design and implementation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.