The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future.
The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future.
复制标题
疟疾风险的全球分布和人口：过去，现在和未来。
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(04)01043-6
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发表时间：
2004-06
影响因子：
56.3
通讯作者：
Snow, RW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hay, SI;Guerra, CA;Tatem, AJ;Noor, AM;Snow, RW
本综述的目的是利用地理信息系统结合历史地图来量化人类活动对世纪疟疾分布的影响。制图记录的性质使人们能够在1900年至2002年期间分六次对疟疾空间界限的全球和区域模式进行调查。同期的人口表面也可以量化生活在疟疾风险地区的人数变化。这些数据表明，在过去的世纪，尽管人类活动减少了支持疟疾的土地面积的一半，但人口变化导致面临疟疾风险的总人口增加了20亿。此外，按地方病类别对当今疟疾范围进行分层并检查区域差异，突出表明东南亚有近10亿人暴露于低地方病和中地方病疟疾。我们进一步得出结论，疟疾负担区域分布估计数的一些扭曲可能是由于计算非洲负担的方法不同所致。根据地方分布图对全国恶性疟原虫感染流行率的粗略估计证实了这些说法。最后，2010年人口预测被用来调查未来人口变化的潜在影响。这些数据表明，虽然人口增长不会大大改变有疟疾危险的人的区域分布，但到2010年，在目前疟疾分布的范围内将有大约4亿新生儿出生，这是减疟倡议面临的挑战，即在这一日期之前将世界疟疾负担减半。
The aim of this review was to use geographic information systems in combination with historical maps to quantify the anthropogenic impact on the distribution of malaria in the 20th century. The nature of the cartographic record enabled global and regional patterns in the spatial limits of malaria to be investigated at six intervals between 1900 and 2002. Contemporaneous population surfaces also allowed changes in the numbers of people living in areas of malaria risk to be quantified. These data showed that during the past century, despite human activities reducing by half the land area supporting malaria, demographic changes resulted in a 2 billion increase in the total population exposed to malaria risk. Furthermore, stratifying the present day malaria extent by endemicity class and examining regional differences highlighted that nearly 1 billion people are exposed to hypoendemic and mesoendemic malaria in southeast Asia. We further concluded that some distortion in estimates of the regional distribution of malaria burden could have resulted from different methods used to calculate burden in Africa. Crude estimates of the national prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection based on endemicity maps corroborate these assertions. Finally, population projections for 2010 were used to investigate the potential effect of future demographic changes. These indicated that although population growth will not substantially change the regional distribution of people at malaria risk, around 400 million births will occur within the boundary of current distribution of malaria by 2010: the date by which the Roll Back Malaria initiative is challenged to halve the world’s malaria burden.