Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island
Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-10339-1
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发表时间：
2019-05-27
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Smith, David L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guerra, Carlos A.;Kang, Su Yun;Smith, David L.
过去15年来，比奥科岛的疟疾负担显著减少。然而，干预措施对疟疾流行的影响最近停滞不前。在这里，我们使用全岛年度疟疾指标调查的数据来调查人类运动模式及其与恶性疟原虫流行率的关系。利用地质统计学和数学模型，我们发现岛外旅行在首都马拉博及其周边地区更为普遍。离岛旅行者感染疟疾的几率明显高于其他人口。我们估计疟疾输入率很高，足以解释马拉博及其周围大部分地区的疟疾流行情况，而且沿该岛西海岸的当地传播最高。尽管存在不确定性，但在比奥科从控制向消除过渡的过程中，这些对剩余传播和进口的估计可作为评估消除进展和有效分配资源的基础。
Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection among off-island travelers are significantly higher than the rest of the population. We estimate that malaria importation rates are high enough to explain malaria prevalence in much of Malabo and its surroundings, and that local transmission is highest along the West Coast of the island. Despite uncertainty, these estimates of residual transmission and importation serve as a basis for evaluating progress towards elimination and for efficiently allocating resources as Bioko makes the transition from control to elimination.