Predicting the response time of an urban ambulance system.
Predicting the response time of an urban ambulance system.
复制标题
预测城市救护系统的响应时间。
作者：
D. W. Scott;L. E. Factor;G. Gorry
响应时间，即，从派遣救护车到救护车到达紧急情况现场的时间是衡量城市救护车系统性能的一个重要指标。我们开发了一个模型，预测响应时间的整个分布，明确占需求的速率和空间分布，可变的救护车速度，和缓冲效应。我们使用从休斯顿3,936辆救护车运行中采集的数据对模型进行了测试，并在响应时间的经验分布和预测分布之间实现了密切的一致性。我们使用概率理论来预测响应时间产生了一个模型，补充了以前报道的规划和评估城市救护车系统。
Response time, i.e., the time from dispatch of an ambulance to its arrival at the scene of an emergency, is an important measure of performance in an urban ambulance system. We developed a model that predicts the entire distribution of response time, explicitly accounting for the rate and spatial distribution of demand, variable ambulance velocities, and queueing effects. We tested the model using data sampled from 3,936 ambulance runs in Houston and achieved close agreement between empirical and predicted distributions of response time. Our use of probability theory to predict response times yielded a model that complements those previously reported for planning and evaluating urban ambulance systems.