The Role of Society in Engineering Risk Analysis: A Capabilities‐Based Approach
The Role of Society in Engineering Risk Analysis: A Capabilities‐Based Approach
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00801.x
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发表时间：
2006-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
C. Murphy;P. Gardoni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Murphy;P. Gardoni
本文提出了工程风险分析的新概念框架，以解释危害对社会中个人的净影响。它分析了流行的风险分析方法的四个局限性，并提出了克服这些局限性的方法。这些限制是社会影响的典型解释和评估方式造成的。流行的方法通常过于狭隘地关注自然或人为灾害的后果，而没有考虑到此类灾害的更广泛的社会影响。此类方法缺乏统一且一致的指标来解释不可量化后果（如心理创伤或社会影响）的影响，并且在评估风险时依赖于隐含且可能不准确的价值判断。为了克服这些局限性，我们提出了一种替代的基于能力的方法来处理风险分析中的社会。联合国目前也采用类似的方法来定量衡量世界各国的发展程度。在基于能力的方法中，通过使用个人能力（个人能够、仍然能够或无法实现的功能）作为衡量标准，以统一的方式测量和比较危险造成的潜在收益和损失。这种基于能力的方法为识别和量化危害更广泛、复杂的社会后果提供了基础，并且基于明确的价值判断。基于能力的方法可以适应风险确定和风险评估的不同方法或技术，并可用于评估不同类型危害（自然或人为）以及从轻微到灾难性不同程度的风险。此外，实施基于能力的方法有助于制定公共政策决策的单一标准，因为基于能力的方法已经在发展经济学和政策中使用。
This article proposes a new conceptual framework in engineering risk analysis to account for the net impact of hazards on individuals in a society. It analyzes four limitations of prevailing approaches to risk analysis and suggests a way to overcome them. These limitations are a result of how societal impacts are characteristically accounted for and valued. Prevailing approaches typically focus too narrowly on the consequences of natural or man‐made hazards, not accounting for the broader societal impacts of such hazards. Such approaches lack a uniform and consistent metric for accounting for the impact of the nonquantifiable consequences (like psychological trauma or societal impacts) and rely upon implicit and potentially inaccurate value judgments when evaluating risks. To overcome these limitations, we propose an alternative, Capabilities‐Based Approach to the treatment of society in risk analysis. A similar approach is currently used by the United Nations to quantitatively measure the degree of development in countries around the world. In a Capabilities‐Based Approach, the potential benefits and losses due to a hazard are measured and compared in a uniform way by using individual capabilities (functionings individuals are able, still able, or unable to achieve) as a metric. This Capabilities‐Based Approach provides a foundation for identifying and quantifying the broader, complex societal consequences of hazards and is based on explicit, value judgments. The Capabilities‐Based Approach can accommodate different methods or techniques for risk determination and for risk evaluation and can be used in assessing risk in diverse types of hazards (natural or man‐made) and different magnitudes that range from minor to catastrophic. In addition, implementing a Capabilities‐Based Approach contributes to the development of a single standard for public policy decision making, since a Capabilities‐Based Approach is already in use in development economics and policy.