A Model Based Ranking System for Soccer Teams
A Model Based Ranking System for Soccer Teams
复制标题
基于模型的足球队排名系统
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2273471
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Vandebroek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chang Wang;M. Vandebroek
在竞技体育中，有效的排名系统的设计引起了越来越多的兴趣。对于具有双向结果的运动，布拉德利-特里模型已被证明是一种有效的方法。然而，标准布拉德利-特里模型的一个众所周知的局限性是它们不能应用于允许在正常比赛时间后以平局结束的运动。在过去的几十年里，文献中已经探索了各种方法来模拟足球比赛。在本文中，设计了一个具有各种协变量的新扩展 Bradley-Terry 模型，以便根据过去 4 年的比赛情况为国际足球队构建更先进的排名系统。首先采用标准似然（ML）估计方法。运行加权似然（WML）估计程序以进一步改进。最后开发了一个进化模型来捕捉大型活动期间表现的动态趋势。本文探讨了我们的排名与现有国际足联排名的差异程度。此外，还对2012年欧洲足球锦标赛进行了分析。
In competitive sports, the design of an effective ranking system attracts increasing interests. For sports with 2-way results, the Bradley-Terry model has proven to be an effective approach. However, a well-known limitation of standard Bradley-Terry models is that they cannot be applied to sports which allow to end with a tie after regular playing time. During the past decades various methods have been explored to model soccer games in the literature. In this paper, a new extended Bradley-Terry model with various covariates is devised to construct a more advanced ranking system for international soccer teams based on their games played within the past 4 years. First a standard likelihood (ML) estimation method was employed. A weighted likelihood (WML) estimation procedure was run for further improvement. Finally an evolutional model was developed to capture the dynamic trend in performance during big events. This paper examines the extent to which our ranking differs from the existing FIFA ranking. In addition, the 2012 UEFA European Football Championships was analyzed.