Observation-derived ice growth curves show patterns and trends in maximum ice thickness and safe travel duration of Alaskan lakes and rivers
Observation-derived ice growth curves show patterns and trends in maximum ice thickness and safe travel duration of Alaskan lakes and rivers
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DOI：
10.5194/tc-14-3595-2020
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发表时间：
2020-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Arp;J. Cherry;Dana R. N. Brown;A. Bondurant;K. Endres
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文献类型：
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作者：
C. Arp;J. Cherry;Dana R. N. Brown;A. Bondurant;K. Endres
抽象的。湖泊和河流上淡水冰的形成、增长和衰减是北方地区的基本过程，对社会生态系统具有广泛的影响。冬季结束时的冰层厚度可能是寒冷季节天气和气候的最佳结合，而厚冰层和不断增长的冰层覆盖时间是冬季旅行和娱乐季节的有用指标。最大冰厚（MIT）和冰的旅行时间（ITD）可以从温度驱动的冰生长曲线拟合冰厚观测估计。我们模拟和分析冰的生长曲线的基础上收集的冰厚度数据从一系列观测计划在整个阿拉斯加跨越过去20-60年，以了解湖泊和河流冰的模式和趋势。结果表明，减少麻省理工学院（变薄）在几个北方，内陆和沿海地区的阿拉斯加和整体更大的年际变化的河流相比，湖泊。内陆地区一般表现出较少的变化，在麻省理工学院，甚至略有增加的趋势，至少有一个河流网站。平均ITD范围从214天在最北端的湖泊到114天在最南端的湖泊，有显着减少的持续时间为一半的网站。河流ITD显示出较低的区域变化性，但较高的年际变化性，这凸显了预测季节性一致河流出行的挑战。这些冰观测数据的标准化和分析为了解冬季气候变化及其对淡水冰服务的影响提供了全面的总结。
Abstract. The formation, growth, and decay of freshwater ice on lakes and rivers are fundamental processes of northern regions with wide-ranging implications for socio-ecological systems. Ice thickness at the end of winter is perhaps the best integration of cold-season weather and climate, while the duration of thick and growing ice cover is a useful indicator for the winter travel and recreation season. Both maximum ice thickness (MIT) and ice travel duration (ITD) can be estimated from temperature-driven ice growth curves fit to ice thickness observations. We simulated and analyzed ice growth curves based on ice thickness data collected from a range of observation programs throughout Alaska spanning the past 20–60 years to understand patterns and trends in lake and river ice. Results suggest reductions in MIT (thinning) in several northern, interior, and coastal regions of Alaska and overall greater interannual variability in rivers compared to lakes. Interior regions generally showed less variability in MIT and even slightly increasing trends in at least one river site. Average ITD ranged from 214 d in the northernmost lakes to 114 d across southernmost lakes, with significant decreases in duration for half of sites. River ITD showed low regional variability but high interannual variability, underscoring the challenges with predicting seasonally consistent river travel. Standardization and analysis of these ice observation data provide a comprehensive summary for understanding changes in winter climate and its impact on freshwater ice services.