On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases
On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases
复制标题
将平流层臭氧和温度变化归因于消耗臭氧层物质和充分混合的温室气体的变化
DOI：
10.5194/acp-8-1435-2008
复制
发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
A. Jonsson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Shepherd;A. Jonsson
传统上，全球平均平流层温度变化的垂直廓线是平流层臭氧消耗和二氧化碳增加的冷却效应归因的重要诊断。然而，二氧化碳引起的冷却通过扰动臭氧化学改变臭氧丰度，从而将平流层臭氧温度响应与二氧化碳和臭氧消耗物质的变化联系起来。在这里，我们解开臭氧温度耦合，并表明全球平均平流层温度变化的归因于CO2和ODS的变化（这是真正的人为强迫剂）可以从传统的归因于CO2和臭氧的变化有很大的不同。这些影响的意义量化经验使用模拟从三维化学气候模型。结果证实了传统的方法在归因于变化的基本有效性在过去的一段时间内快速消耗臭氧层物质的增加，虽然我们发现，约10%的上层平流层臭氧减少消耗臭氧层物质的增加，在此期间1975年？1995年的变化被CO2的增加所抵消，因此对平流层上部CO2引起的冷却有些高估。然而，在考虑臭氧恢复时，臭氧-温度耦合是一级效应;预计从2010年起，平流层上部臭氧增加的五分之二？到2040年，二氧化碳排放量将增加。因此，现在有必要将全球平均平流层温度变化归因于二氧化碳和臭氧消耗物质的变化，而不是二氧化碳和臭氧的变化。
The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 increases. However, CO 2 -induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone-temperature response to changes in CO 2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO 2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO 2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975?1995 was offset by the increase in CO 2 , and the CO 2 -induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010?2040 is attributable to CO 2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO 2 and ODS changes rather than on CO 2 and ozone changes.