The Trouble With Overconfidence
The Trouble With Overconfidence
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1001821
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发表时间：
2007-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Healy;D. Moore
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Healy;D. Moore
本文提出了一个和解的三种不同的方式，其中研究文献定义过度自信：（1）高估自己的实际表现，（2）overplacement一个人的表现相对于他人，（3）在一个人的信念过度精确。实验证据表明，前两种情况的逆转（明显的不自信），当它们发生时，往往是在不同类型的任务中。在困难的任务中，人们高估了自己的实际表现，但也认为自己比别人差;在简单的任务中，人们低估了自己的实际表现，但认为自己比别人好。本文提供了一个简单的理论，可以解释这些不一致。过度精确似乎比其他两种类型的过度自信更持久，但它的存在降低了高估和过度放置的幅度。
This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) excessive precision in one's beliefs. Experimental evidence shows that reversals of the first two (apparent underconfidence), when they occur, tend to be on different types of tasks. On difficult tasks, people overestimate their actual performances but also believe that they are worse than others; on easy tasks, people underestimate their actual performances but believe they are better than others. This paper offers a straightforward theory that can explain these inconsistencies. Overprecision appears to be more persistent than either of the other two types of overconfidence, but its presence reduces the magnitude of both overestimation and overplacement.