Decadal Climate Variability in the Argentine Pampas: Regional Impacts of Plausible Climate Scenarios on Agricultural Systems
Decadal Climate Variability in the Argentine Pampas: Regional Impacts of Plausible Climate Scenarios on Agricultural Systems
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阿根廷潘帕斯草原的年代际气候变化：合理气候情景对农业系统的区域影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Á. Menéndez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Podestá;F. Bert;B. Rajagopalan;Somkiat Apipattanavis;C. Laciana;E. Weber;W. Easterling;R. Katz;David Letson;Á. Menéndez
阿根廷的潘帕斯草原在20世纪的降水量一直呈增长趋势。降雨量的增加在一定程度上促进了农业面积的显著扩大，特别是在潘帕斯草原的气候边缘地区。然而，目前尚不清楚，如果（完全可能的）气候恢复到一个更干燥的时代，目前的农业生产系统，部分是为了应对气候条件的改善而发展起来的，是否仍然可行。我们评估了一个合理的降水减少趋势对潘帕斯草原两个对比农业系统经济可持续性的潜在影响：位于潘帕斯草原最具生产力分区的Pergamino和位于该地区北方半干旱边缘的皮拉尔。此外，我们还探索适应气候变化的范围。在没有采取适应措施的情况下，如果降水量减少，这是合理的，不同地点的影响可能大不相同：而在Pergamino，作物的经济回报不会发生明显变化，更边际的皮拉尔将经历利润显著下降和生产风险增加。然而，如果农民利用现有技术或专门知识调整其农艺管理，可能会部分减轻潜在的负面影响。
The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustain- ability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subre- gion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Nigel Gi lbert;K. G. Troitzsch
通讯作者：
Nigel Gi lbert;K. G. Troitzsch