Urbanization on the US landscape: looking ahead in the 21st century
Urbanization on the US landscape: looking ahead in the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2003.07.004
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发表时间：
2004-08-15
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
Lichtenstein, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alig, RJ;Kline, JD;Lichtenstein, M
将农村土地转为城市和其他建筑用途影响到建筑用途全球土地基础所生产的商品和服务的组合。在美国，1982年至1997年间，用于城市建设的土地增加了34%。这一增长主要来自耕地和林地的转换，最大的增长发生在该国南部地区的发达地区。在对影响美国发达土地利用的驱动因素进行分析时，我们发现结果与假设的关系一致，包括人口密度和个人收入增加导致的发展显着增加。根据这些结果，我们预测了到2025年潜在的未来城市化和发展的变化，考虑到人口和真实的个人收入的估计增长。这些预测表明，在今后25年中，城市将继续扩大，但增加的幅度因区域而异。美国已开发土地面积预计将增加79%，占总土地面积的比例将从5.2%提高到9.2%。由于预计大部分增长将发生在人类与环境相互作用相对紧张的地区，如一些沿海县，因此对景观和城市规划的影响包括对敏感流域、河岸地区、野生动物栖息地和供水的潜在影响。由爱思唯尔公司出版
Conversion of rural lands to urban and other built-up uses affects the mix of commodities and services produced from the built-up uses global land base. In the United States, there was a 34% increase in the amount of land devoted to urban and built between 1982 and 1997. This increase came predominantly from the conversion of croplands and forestland, with the largest increases in developed area happening in the southern region of the country. In an analysis of drivers influencing developed land uses in the US, we found results that were consistent with hypothesized relationships, including significant increases in development as a result of increases in population density and personal income. From these results, we projected changes in potential future urbanization and development by 2025 given estimated increases in population and real personal income. The projections suggest continued urban expansion over the next 25 years, with the magnitude of increase varying by region. US developed area is projected to increase by 79%, raising the proportion of the total land base that is developed from 5.2 to 9.2%. Because much of the growth is expected in areas relatively stressed with respect to human-environment interactions, such as some coastal counties, implications for landscape and urban planning include potential impacts on sensitive watersheds, riparian areas, wildlife habitat, and water supplies. Published by Elsevier B.V.