Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves.
Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0253116
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Zhang Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hale T;Angrist N;Hale AJ;Kira B;Majumdar S;Petherick A;Phillips T;Sridhar D;Thompson RN;Webster S;Zhang Y
我们评估了在全球COVID-19大流行的连续几波疫情中，政府关闭和遏制措施对COVID-19死亡人数的影响。从2020年1月1日至2021年3月11日，收集了186个国家的一系列遏制和关闭政策的每日数据。将这些数据合并为每个国家每天的总严格性指数（SI）评分（范围：0-100）。通过一种数学算法将国家划分为连续的波，以确定疾病的高峰和低谷。在我们的分析期内，63个国家经历了至少一次浪潮，40个国家经历了两次浪潮，10个国家经历了三次浪潮。在每一波中，回归被用来评估政府严格的力度与随后与COVID-19相关的死亡之间的关系，并对时间和特定国家的人口统计，卫生系统和经济特征进行了一些控制。在我们分析的整个期间和113个国家中，SI增加10个百分点与平均每日死亡率降低6个百分点（P < 0.001，95% CI = [5%，7%]）有关。在第一波中，在迄今为止最终经历了3波大流行的国家中，SI增加10点导致平均每日死亡率降低21个百分点（P < .001，95% CI = [8%，16%]）。这种效应在第三波中持续存在，死亡率降低了28个百分点（P <0.001，95% CI = [13%，21%]）。此外，相互作用效应表明，政府政策在减少所有各类国家所有浪潮中的死亡人数方面都是有效的。这些发现凸显了随着时间的推移，非药物应对COVID-19的持久重要性。
We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P < 0.001, 95% CI = [5%, 7%]) lower average daily deaths. In the first wave, in countries that ultimately experiences 3 waves of the pandemic to date, ten additional points on the SI resulted in lower average daily deaths by 21 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [8%, 16%]). This effect was sustained in the third wave with reductions in deaths of 28 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [13%, 21%]). Moreover, interaction effects show that government policies were effective in reducing deaths in all waves in all groups of countries. These findings highlight the enduring importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 over time.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Chernozhukov V;Kasahara H;Schrimpf P
通讯作者：
Schrimpf P
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bo Y;Guo C;Lin C;Zeng Y;Li HB;Zhang Y;Hossain MS;Chan JWM;Yeung DW;Kwok KO;Wong SYS;Lau AKH;Lao XQ
通讯作者：
Lao XQ
影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Aleta A;Martín-Corral D;Pastore Y Piontti A;Ajelli M;Litvinova M;Chinazzi M;Dean NE;Halloran ME;Longini IM Jr;Merler S;Pentland A;Vespignani A;Moro E;Moreno Y
通讯作者：
Moreno Y
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Chisadza, Carolyn;Clance, Matthew;Gupta, Rangan
通讯作者：
Gupta, Rangan
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00167-5
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Contreras S;Priesemann V
通讯作者：
Priesemann V