Forecast Skill and Predictability of Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
Forecast Skill and Predictability of Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
复制标题
大西洋海面观测温度的预报技巧和可预测性
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00539.1
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
L. Zanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Zanna
摘要建立了大西洋海表温度（SST）变率的经验统计模型，以评估其预测技巧和线性可预测性。利用1870 - 2009年大西洋20°S ~ 66°N海温距平资料，采用线性逆建模（LIM）方法建立了一个动态统计模型。LIM允许将多变量红噪声模型拟合到观测到的年平均海温异常并对其进行检验。对预测技能进行了评估，结果显示为0（3-5年）。若干年后，这种技能大大降低，尤其是在亚极地地区。在由LIM确定的稳定动力系统中，年平均海温异常的技巧来源于四个阻尼特征模态。这四种特征模态与海温方差的最佳增长事件有关，其模式与低频变率模态相似，并且与大西洋海温年际时间尺度上的可预测性和变率有关。LIM可以服务……
AbstractAn empirical statistical model is constructed to assess the forecast skill and the linear predictability of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) is used to build a dynamically based statistical model using observed Atlantic SST anomalies between latitudes 20°S and 66°N from 1870 to 2009. LIM allows one to fit a multivariate red-noise model to the observed annually averaged SST anomalies and to test it. Forecast skill is assessed and is shown to be O(3–5 yr). After a few years, the skill is greatly reduced, especially in the subpolar region. In the stable dynamical system determined by LIM, skill of annual average SST anomalies arises from four damped eigenmodes. The four eigenmodes are shown to be relevant in particular for the optimal growth events of SST variance, with a pattern reminiscent of the low-frequency mode of variability, and in general for the predictability and variability of Atlantic SSTs on interannual time scales. LIM might serve ...
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
E. Hawkins;J. Robson;R. Sutton;Doug M. Smith;N. Keenlyside
通讯作者：
E. Hawkins;J. Robson;R. Sutton;Doug M. Smith;N. Keenlyside