Determinants of generalized herpes simplex virus-2 epidemics: the role of sexual partner concurrency
Determinants of generalized herpes simplex virus-2 epidemics: the role of sexual partner concurrency
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DOI：
10.1177/0956462412472816
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Hens, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kenyon, C.;Colebunders, R.;Hens, N.
关于为什么一些人群会患上泛发性单纯疱疹病毒2型(HSV-2)疫情，人们知之甚少。性网络层面的因素，如同时运行的伴侣比例，是看似合理的解释。在这项生态学分析中，我们使用Spearman的相关系数来评估在一些国家和国家以下地区的人群中，点并发的人群流行率与HSV-2之间是否存在关联。我们发现，在不同国家之间，以及国家内不同种族和民族之间，点并发率与女性单纯疱疹病毒2型感染率之间存在关联(Spearman‘s Rho=0.715；P=0.020)。此外，在国际水平上，40-44岁女性中艾滋病毒峰值与单纯疱疹病毒2型感染率之间存在很强的相关性(Spearman‘s Rho=0.720；P=0.0001)。这可能表明艾滋病毒和单纯疱疹病毒2型感染率较高的人群拥有广泛连接的性关系网络，这使他们面临由这两种性传播感染传播的风险增加。在20-24岁的妇女中，单纯疱疹病毒2型感染率低于20%的国家没有出现普遍的艾滋病毒流行。因此，青少年中HSV-2的流行可能是一个有用的标志，表明当地的性网络对STI传播的风险有多大，并可能提供一个有用的早期指标，表明行为改变倡议的成败。
Little is known as to why some populations develop generalized herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) epidemics. Sexual network-level factors, such as the proportion of partnerships that run concurrently, are plausible explanations. In this ecological analysis, we used Spearman's correlation coefficients to assess if there is an association between population prevalence of point-concurrency and HSV-2 in a number of national and subnational populations. We found that there is an association between prevalence of point-concurrency and female HSV-2 prevalence between different countries (Spearman's rho = 0.715; P = 0.020), and within different races and ethnic groups within countries. In addition, there was a strong association between peak HIV and HSV-2 prevalence in 40-44-year-old women at an international level (Spearman's rho = 0.720; P = 0.0001). This could be indicative of populations with high HIV and HSV-2 prevalence rates having extensively connected sexual networks which puts them at increased risk of spread by both these sexually transmitted infections (STIs). No country with an HSV-2 prevalence of under 20% in their 20-24-year-old women had a generalized HIV epidemic. Thus, HSV-2 prevalence in adolescents may be a useful marker of how risky a local sexual network is for STI spread and may provide a useful early indicator of the success or failure of behavior change initiatives.