The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios
The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios
复制标题
气候系统对极高温室气体排放情景的响应
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
W. Washington
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Sanderson;B. O’Neill;J. Kiehl;G. Meehl;R. Knutti;W. Washington
要在充分知情的情况下作出气候政策决定，就必须对气候系统进行足够广泛的排放情景模拟。虽然最近的文献一直致力于低排放的未来，但尚未彻底探索非常高排放的可能性。我们指定了两个说明性排放情景，它们显著高于A1FI情景（IPCC过去报告中考虑的最高情景），并在全球气候模式中模拟它们，以研究它们对气候变化的影响。相对于A1FI情景，我们的最高情景导致到2100年全球平均变暖在A1FI水平上增加2 K，到2070年北极夏季海冰完全消失，到2100年由于热膨胀在A1FI水平上增加43%的海平面上升。20世纪末以来的区域最高气温增幅比A1FI增幅大50-100%，美国中部、青藏高原和阿拉斯加等地区的增幅比A1FI高出300-400%。
Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50–100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300–400% increase above A1FI levels.