Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely is Very Likely
Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely is Very Likely
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结合%20概率%20预测：%2060%%20和%2060%%20是%2060%、%20但是%20可能%20和%20可能%20是%20非常%20可能
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Celia Gaertig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Robert Mislavsky;Celia Gaertig
我们如何联合收割机结合其他人的概率预测？先前的研究表明，当顾问提供数字概率预测时，人们通常会平均它们（即，他们更接近平均顾问的预测）。但是，如果顾问说某个事件是“可能的”或“可能的”，那该怎么办？在八项研究（n = 7，334）中，我们发现人们更有可能表现得好像他们“计算”言语概率（即，他们比任何个人顾问的预测更接近确定性），而不是“计算”数字概率。例如，当顾问都说一个事件是“可能的”，参与者会说它是“非常可能的”。这种影响发生在概率高于和低于50%的情况下，发生在假设的情景和真实的事件中，以及同时或依次呈现其他人的预测时。我们还表明，这种组合策略延续到随后的消费者决策，依赖于顾问的可能性判断。我们讨论并排除了几个候选机制，我们的效果。这篇论文被Yuval Rottenstreich的决策分析所接受。
How do we combine others’ probability forecasts? Prior research has shown that when advisors provide numeric probability forecasts, people typically average them (i.e., they move closer to the average advisor’s forecast). However, what if the advisors say that an event is “likely” or “probable?” In eight studies (n = 7,334), we find that people are more likely to act as if they “count” verbal probabilities (i.e., they move closer to certainty than any individual advisor’s forecast) than they are to “count” numeric probabilities. For example, when the advisors both say an event is “likely,” participants will say that it is “very likely.” This effect occurs for both probabilities above and below 50%, for hypothetical scenarios and real events, and when presenting the others’ forecasts simultaneously or sequentially. We also show that this combination strategy carries over to subsequent consumer decisions that rely on advisors’ likelihood judgments. We discuss and rule out several candidate mechanisms for our effect. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, decision analysis.
认知不确定性与偶然不确定性下的判断极端性和准确性
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Tannenbaum, David;Fox, Craig R.;Ülkümen, Gülden
通讯作者：
Ülkümen, Gülden