Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data
Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data
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从 WSR-88D 数据得出的龙卷风损坏等级概率
DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-17-0004.1
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Patrick Marsh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Richard L. Thompson;Bryan T. Smith;J. Grams;A. Dean;J. Picca;Ariel E. Cohen;Elizabeth M. Leitman;Aaron M. Gleason;Patrick Marsh
从NEXRAD（WSR-88 D）网络在美国的观察Abstractprevious工作表明，从龙卷风的损害的概率，作为代表EF-规模评级，增加低层旋转速度的增加。这项工作扩展了以前的研究，包括2014年至2015年报告的龙卷风，以及非龙卷风严重雷暴的强大样本[≥1英寸]。(2.54直径1.5厘米的冰雹，雷暴阵风≥ 50千分之一秒（25米秒−1），或报告的风灾]，伴随低层气旋旋转。的nontornadic样本的添加允许的龙卷风破坏评级概率的计算在频谱上的有组织的严重雷暴右移动的超级单体和准线性对流系统表示。双极化变量用于确保正确使用的速度数据在识别龙卷风和nontornadic的情况下。龙卷风破坏等级概率随着低层旋转速度Vrot的增加和环流直径的减小而增加。
AbstractPrevious work with observations from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network in the United States has shown that the probability of damage from a tornado, as represented by EF-scale ratings, increases as low-level rotational velocity increases. This work expands on previous studies by including reported tornadoes from 2014 to 2015, as well as a robust sample of nontornadic severe thunderstorms [≥1-in.- (2.54 cm) diameter hail, thunderstorm wind gusts ≥ 50 kt (25 m s−1), or reported wind damage] with low-level cyclonic rotation. The addition of the nontornadic sample allows the computation of tornado damage rating probabilities across a spectrum of organized severe thunderstorms represented by right-moving supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. Dual-polarization variables are used to ensure proper use of velocity data in the identification of tornadic and nontornadic cases. Tornado damage rating probabilities increase as low-level rotational velocity Vrot increases and circulation diameter decreases....