The Regime Complex for Climate Change
The Regime Complex for Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1017/s1537592710004068
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Victor, David G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keohane, Robert O.;Victor, David G.
没有一个统一的制度来管理限制气候变化程度的努力。相反，存在一种制度复合体：一组松散耦合的特定制度。我们描述了气候变化的政权复杂，并试图解释它，使用基于利益的，功能和组织的论点。这种体制形式很可能会持续下去;建立一个全面制度的努力不太可能成功，但有很多实验是针对气候变化问题的特定方面建立较窄的机构。基于这一分析，我们认为，一个气候变化制度复杂，如果它符合特定的标准，任何政治上可行的全面制度的优势。适应性和灵活性在气候变化政策这样的环境中尤为重要，在这种环境中，要求最高的国际承诺相互依存，但各国政府在利益和执行能力方面存在很大差异。然而，鉴于国内和国际的严重政治限制，几乎没有理由乐观地认为，正在出现的气候制度复合体将导致足够快的减排速度，以实现广泛讨论的目标，例如将全球变暖控制在比工业化前水平高两度的水平。
There is no integrated regime governing efforts to limit the extent of climate change. Instead, there is a regime complex: a loosely-coupled set of specific regimes. We describe the regime complex for climate change and seek to explain it, using interest-based, functional, and organizational arguments. This institutional form is likely to persist; efforts to build a comprehensive regime are unlikely to succeed, but experiments abound with narrower institutions focused on particular aspects of the climate change problem. Building on this analysis, we argue that a climate change regime complex, if it meets specified criteria, has advantages over any politically feasible comprehensive regime. Adaptability and flexibility are particularly important in a setting-such as climate change policy-in which the most demanding international commitments are interdependent yet governments vary widely in their interest and ability to implement them. Yet in view of the serious political constraints, both domestic and international, there is little reason for optimism that the climate regime complex that is emerging will lead to reductions in emissions rapid enough to meet widely discussed goals, such as stopping global warming at two degrees above pre-industrial levels.