Predictors of survival in 171 patients with systemic sclerosis (Scleroderma)
Predictors of survival in 171 patients with systemic sclerosis (Scleroderma)
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DOI：
10.1007/bf02238937
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发表时间：
1997-09-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Czirjak, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nagy, Z;Czirjak, L
通过单变量分析和考克斯比例风险模型，使用随访时的横断面数据和时间依赖性随访数据，确定171例系统性硬化症患者的生存预测因素。从1982年至1993年底的临床和实验室数据进行了评价。在单变量分析和考克斯比例风险模型中，弥漫性硬皮病、肾脏和心脏受累均为不利的预后体征。考克斯模型，使用在研究开始时检测到的变量，表明心包炎和贫血是不良预后体征。尚未报道系统性硬化症的时间依赖性数据分析。根据考克斯模型，随访期间出现色素沉着紊乱、贫血和呼吸衰竭也导致疾病预后不良。在逐步选择模型中，弥漫性硬皮病、内脏器官表现（包括肾脏和心脏受累）主要被选为最不利的生存因素。至于皮肤受累和内脏器官表现的程度，该疾病的一般表现在世界各地似乎相似。研究开始时心包炎和色素紊乱的早期出现是不良的预后信号。
Predictors of survival were determined in 171 patients with systemic sclerosis by univariate analysis, and the Cox proportional hazards model using both cross sectional data at entry into the follow-up and time-dependent follow-up data. Clinical and laboratory data were evaluated from 1982 to the end of 1993. The presence of diffuse scleroderma, kidney and cardiac involvements were unfavourable prognostic signs in both the univariate analysis, and the Cox proportional hazards models. The Cox model, using the variables detected at study entry, indicated that pericarditis, and anaemia were bad prognostic signs. Analysis with time dependent data has not been reported in systemic sclerosis. The appearance of pigmentation disturbances, anaemia, and respiratory failure during the follow-up also caused a poor prognosis of the disease by the Cox model. In the stepwise selection models, diffuse scleroderma, internal organ manifestations including renal, and cardiac involvements were predominantly selected as the most unfavourable factors for survival. As to the extent of skin involvement and internal organ manifestations, the general behaviour of the disease seems to be similar throughout the world. The early appearance of pericarditis and pigmentation disturbances at study entry are bad prognostic signs.