Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems
Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1029/2022jg006999
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Lawman;S. Dee;K. Delong;A. Correa
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文献类型：
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作者：
A. Lawman;S. Dee;K. Delong;A. Correa
由于人为气候变化导致的气温上升和海洋酸化对墨西哥湾和加勒比海西部的珊瑚礁生态系统构成了不祥的威胁。不幸的是，墨西哥湾和加勒比海地区曾经结构复杂的珊瑚礁自20世纪70年代以来急剧减少；相对较少的珊瑚礁仍然显示平均活珊瑚覆盖率为10%。需要进一步的工作来描述墨西哥湾和加勒比海珊瑚礁的未来气候压力因素。在这里，我们使用跨越2015-2100年的气候模型模拟来划分和评估气候压力源对墨西哥湾和加勒比海西部珊瑚的个别影响。我们使用自顶向下的建模框架来诊断热应力和海洋酸化的未来预测变化，并讨论其对珊瑚礁生态系统的影响。我们发现海洋温度在21世纪上升了2°C - 3°C，到本世纪中叶将超过报道的区域白化阈值。虽然海洋发生酸化，但温度变化的速度和幅度超过了文石饱和状态变化的影响。讨论了使用珊瑚礁风险投影图对墨西哥湾和加勒比海地区未来风险进行量化和交流的框架。如果不作出实质性的缓解努力，海洋温度上升和酸化的综合影响很可能对墨西哥湾和加勒比地区的大多数现有珊瑚造成压力，造成广泛的经济和生态后果。
Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top‐down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid‐century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences.