Modeling and analysis of Cystic Echinococcosis epidemic model with health education
Modeling and analysis of Cystic Echinococcosis epidemic model with health education
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DOI：
10.3934/math.2024176
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Qianqian Cui;Qiang Zhang;Zengyun Hu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qianqian Cui;Qiang Zhang;Zengyun Hu
预防和控制囊性包虫病的传播是一个重要的公共卫生问题。健康教育得到了许多政府的支持，因为它可以提高公众对棘球蚴病的认识，促进个人卫生习惯的养成，从而减少棘球蚴病的传播。本文采用包虫病动态模型整合健康教育的各个方面。采用理论分析和数值模型拟合的方法，定量分析健康教育对棘球蚴病传播的影响。理论结果表明，基本繁殖数是确定某一地理区域内棘球蚴病流行的关键。利用宁夏回族自治区的数据对模型参数进行了估计和拟合，并利用偏秩相关系数法分析了基本再现数的敏感性。上述结果说明，健康教育各方面与棘球蚴病的基本繁殖数呈负相关，说明健康教育在降低棘球蚴病的基本繁殖数和减轻棘球蚴病传播方面的有效性，与实际情况相符。特别是，基本繁殖数与感染牲畜的埋葬率（$ b $）和未喂狗的感染牲畜内脏发生率（$ q $）呈较强的负相关。本文进一步分析了不同参数$ b $和$ q $下犬驱虫率和羊免疫率的实施方案，以及感染宿主随时间的传播情况。根据研究结果，在健康教育中强调对受感染牲畜的管理有可能显著降低棘球蚴病传播的风险。本研究将为制定更优质的健康教育计划提供科学依据。
The prevention and control of the spread of Cystic Echinococcosis is an important public health issue. Health education has been supported by many governments because it can increase public awareness of echinococcosis, promote the development of personal hygiene habits, and subsequently reduce the transmission of echinococcosis. In this paper, a dynamic model of echinococcosis is used to integrate all aspects of health education. Theoretical analysis and numerical model fitting were used to quantitatively analysed by the impact of health education on the spread of echinococcosis. Theoretical findings indicate that the basic reproduction number is crucial in determining the prevalence of echinococcosis within a given geographical area. The parameters of the model were estimated and fitted by using data from the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in China, and the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number was analysed by using the partial rank correlation coefficient method. These findings illustrate that all aspects of health education demonstrate a negative correlation with the basic reproduction number, suggesting the effectiveness of health education in reducing the basic reproduction number and mitigating the transmission of echinococcosis, which is consistent with reality. Particularly, the basic reproduction number showed a strong negative correlation with the burial rate of infected livestock ($ b $) and the incidence of infected livestock viscera that is not fed to dogs ($ q $). This paper further analyzes the implementation plan for canine deworming rates and sheep immunity rates, as well as the transmission of infected hosts over time under different parameters $ b $ and $ q $. According to the findings, emphasizing the management of infected livestock in health education has the potential to significantly reduce the risk of echinococcosis transmission. This study will provide scientific support for the creation of higher quality health education initiatives.