The Counterfactual Self-Estimation of Program Participants: Impact Assessment Without Control Groups or Pretests
The Counterfactual Self-Estimation of Program Participants: Impact Assessment Without Control Groups or Pretests
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DOI：
10.1177/1098214013503182
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Rech, Joerg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mueller, Christoph Emanuel;Gaus, Hansjoerg;Rech, Joerg
本文提出了一种创新的方法来估计反事实，而无需从对照组或之前的测量中生成信息。基于项目参与者能够估计如果他们不参与的话他们将处于的假设状态的想法，Roy-Rubin 模型的基础知识用于描述项目参与者的反事实自我估计 (CSEPP) 如何为估计个人和平均治疗效果奠定基础。讨论了该方法面临的问题以及推荐使用该方法所需满足的先决条件。此外，本文还报告了一项实证研究的设计和结果，以便初步了解 CSEPP 的实用性和可行性。最后，由于存在一些不明确的发现，因此讨论了该方法的优点和缺点以及结果对进一步研究的影响。
This article proposes an innovative approach to estimating the counterfactual without the necessity of generating information from either a control group or a before-measure. Building on the idea that program participants are capable of estimating the hypothetical state they would be in had they not participated, the basics of the Roy-Rubin model are used to describe how the counterfactual self-estimation of program participants (CSEPP) creates a basis for estimating individual and average treatment effects. The problems confronting the approach are discussed as are the preconditions that need to be fulfilled for its use to be recommendable. Moreover, the article reports on the design and results of an empirical study conducted in order to gain first insights into the practicability and viability of the CSEPP. Finally, because there are some ambiguous findings, the strengths and weaknesses of the approach and the implications of the results for further research are discussed.