Delphi: myths and reality.
Delphi: myths and reality.
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DOI：
10.1108/14777260310469319
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Mullen, Penelope M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mullen, Penelope M
过去 20 年，人们对在广泛的医疗保健应用中使用德尔福的兴趣日益浓厚。然而，这种使用伴随着对“真正的Delphi”的编纂和定义的尝试。许多作者对 Delphi 的目的持有狭隘的观点和/或主张采用单一的规范性方法来进行 Delphi 研究。然而，早在 1975 年，Linstone 和 Turoff 就指出试图定义 Delphi 的危险，因为人们会立即遇到违反该定义的研究。通过对围绕 Delphi 的一些争议和误解进行批判性审查，本文旨在消除一些神话，并展示这种多功能方法的广泛范围和潜力。
The last 20 years have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health-care applications. However, this use has been accompanied by attempts to codify and define a "true Delphi". Many authors take a narrow view of the purpose of Delphi and/or advocate a single prescriptive approach to the conduct of a Delphi study. However, as early as 1975, Linstone and Turoff pointed to the danger of attempting to define Delphi as one would immediately encounter a study that violated that definition. Through critical examination of some of the controversies and misunderstandings that surround Delphi, this paper aims to dispel some of the myths and demonstrates the wide scope and potential of this versatile approach.