Analysis of wind damage caused by multiple tropical storm events in Japanese Cryptomeria japonica forests
Analysis of wind damage caused by multiple tropical storm events in Japanese Cryptomeria japonica forests
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DOI：
10.1093/forestry/cpt011
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发表时间：
2013-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Mizunaga, Hiromi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kamimura, Kana;Saito, Satoshi;Mizunaga, Hiromi
本研究分析了1991年至2007年的热带风暴对日本主要由柳杉组成的森林造成的风害。基于Logistic回归和考克斯回归模型的统计分析进行了有关的条件，在森林和林分水平。对位于九州岛的九州林山株式会社（KR forests）经营的森林所遭受的已知损害进行了森林层面的分析，使用热带风暴的特征，如气压、降水量和森林处于风暴带内的时间作为预测因子。根据林龄、立地指数、地形条件、管理措施和风速指标（水平和垂直速度矢量），使用考克斯回归模型，在林分水平（150个分析点）对风害进行了研究。结果表明，在林分水平，较高的小时最大风速和较长的15 m s（1）风速周期与危害发生显著相关。在林分水平，向上垂直速度，间伐处理和地位指数的指标与风害的概率呈正相关。例如，在2年内接受较高的向上垂直速度和间伐处理的林分更有可能降低对热带风暴的稳定性。在我们的分析中，地位指数高于和低于平均值的林分也显示出较低的稳定性。
This study analyzed wind damage caused by tropical storms from 1991 to 2007 to Japanese forests mainly consisting of Cryptomeria japonica. Statistical analyses based on logistic regression and Cox regression models were conducted in relation to conditions at the forest and stand level. Known damage to forests managed by Kyusyu Rinsan Corporation (KR forests), located on the Kyushu Island, was analyzed at the forest level, using tropical storm characteristics such as air pressure, precipitation and periods when the forests were within the storm zone as predictors. Wind damage was also examined at the stand level (150 analysis points) using Cox regression models, according to stand age, site index, terrain conditions, management practices and wind velocity indicators (horizontal and vertical velocity vectors). The results indicated that at the forest level, higher maximum hourly wind speed and longer periods of 15 m s(1) of wind speed were significantly correlated to damage occurrence. At the stand level, indicators of upward vertical velocity, thinning treatments and site index were positively associated with the probability of wind damage. For instance, stands receiving higher upward vertical velocities and thinning treatment within 2 years were more likely to have reduced stability against tropical storms. Stands with higher and lower site index than average also showed lower stability in our analysis.