Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022.
Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022.
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追踪 2022 年以来乌克兰战争造成的未统计温室气体排放量。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169879
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zoriana Romanchuk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Bun;Gregg Marland;Tomohiro Oda;Linda See;Enrique Puliafito;Zbigniew Nahorski;Mathias Jonas;Vasyl Kovalyshyn;I. Ialongo;Orysia Yashchun;Zoriana Romanchuk
《巴黎协定》缔约方必须对温室气体 (GHG) 排放进行核算和报告。排放报告对于了解全球碳循环和应对全球气候变化非常重要。然而，在公开冲突或战争时期，军事排放量显着增加，而目前的核算体系并未设计成充分考虑这一来源。在本文中，我们分析了在 2022/2023 年乌克兰全面战争的前 18 个月中，向 UNFCCC 报告的温室气体国家清单受到了怎样的影响。我们估计由于传统人类活动减少而导致排放量减少。我们确定了乌克兰境内与战争相关的主要排放过程，这些过程未被当前温室气体清单指南涵盖，也不太可能包含在国家清单报告中。如果将这些排放包括在内，它们很可能会以不透明的方式纳入其中，并具有潜在的高度不确定性。我们分析公开数据并利用专家判断来估算以下排放：(1) 使用炸弹、导弹、身管火炮和地雷； （二）军事行动石油产品的消耗； （三）石油储库、炼油厂火灾； （四）建筑物、基础设施火灾； （五）森林、农田火灾； (6) 与战争有关的垃圾/废物的分解。我们对乌克兰战争前 18 个月与战争相关的二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮排放量的估计为 77 MtCO2 当量。相对不确定性为 +/-22%（95% 置信区间）。
Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/−22 % (95 % confidence interval).