Incorporating evolutionary processes into a spatially-explicit model: exploring the consequences of mink-farm closures in Denmark
Incorporating evolutionary processes into a spatially-explicit model: exploring the consequences of mink-farm closures in Denmark
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DOI：
10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04492.x
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发表时间：
2006-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Stephenson, Catriona M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hammershoj, Mette;Travis, Justin M. J.;Stephenson, Catriona M.
在本文中，我们提出了一个基于个体的元胞格模型，该模型基于一个真实的地貌（丹麦）。该模型根据毛皮农场地理位置的数据、每个农场饲养的繁殖水貂数量以及一系列关于逃逸、繁殖、死亡率和扩散的参数来预测自由放养水貂的分布。当把进化因素纳入模型时，结果显示自由放养水貂种群的适应程度可能在空间上有所不同，在农场水貂密度最高的地区适应程度较低（因为逃逸的水貂数量较多）。我们利用该模型探讨了关闭水貂农场或限制水貂从农场逃逸对自由放养种群进化生态学的潜在影响，发现根据进化过程的参数设定，可能会出现几种不同的结果。关闭水貂农场可能导致自由放养种群数量锐减，或者可能导致建立一个适应性更强的、真正的野生种群，其数量最终可能超过农场关闭前的种群数量。本文的主要目的是提高人们对进化过程对丹麦水貂归化的潜在重要性的认识，并强调进一步研究的必要性。未来的实地研究应以减少关键参数的不确定性为目标，从而开发出该模型的改进版本，以便用于提出管理建议。更广泛地说，我们认为，特别是在应用背景下，需要进一步开展将进化生物学和种群生物学联系起来的研究。在许多其他情况下，进化过程可能是理解种群和群落动态的关键。
In this paper, we present an individual-based cellular lattice model, which is based on a real landscape (Denmark). The model predicts the distribution of free-ranging mink from data collated on the geographic locations of fur farms, the number of breeding mink kept per farm, and a range of parameters regarding escape, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal. When evolution was incorporated in the model, the results showed that the degree of adaptation within the free-ranging mink population is likely to vary spatially, with lower adaptation in areas where farm mink density is highest (due to the greater number of escaping mink). We used the model to explore the potential consequences of closing mink farms, or limiting escapes from them, on the evolutionary ecology of the free-ranging population and found that depending upon the paramaterisation of the evolutionary processes, several different outcomes are possible. Closing mink farms may result in a crash of the free-ranging population, or alternatively it may result in the establishment of a better-adapted, truly feral population that may ultimately outnumber the population that was present before farm closures. The main purpose of this paper is to raise awareness of the potential importance of evolutionary processes for the naturalisation of mink in Denmark. and to highlight the need for further work. Future field studies should be targeted to reduce the uncertainty in key parameters, allowing the development of an improved version of this model that can be used to generate management recommendations. More generally, we believe. that further work linking evolutionary and population biology is required particularly in an applied context. There are likely to be many further scenarios where evolutionary processes may hold the key to understanding both population and community dynamics.