Nonzero repair times dependent on the failure hazard
Nonzero repair times dependent on the failure hazard
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DOI：
10.1002/qre.2611
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Richard Arnold;S. Chukova;Y. Hayakawa;Sarah E. Marshall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Richard Arnold;S. Chukova;Y. Hayakawa;Sarah E. Marshall
在有关可修复系统的可靠性和维修性的文献中，将维修时间建模为瞬时时间是很常见的。然而，对于一些复杂的系统，特别是那些需要高可靠性水平的系统，这是一个不合理的假设，而且这些系统可能会在其生命周期中的很大一部分时间处于维护和维修状态。我们用交替随机过程来模拟这样一个系统的老化。操作时间是随机产生的，并且可能具有越来越高的故障率。维修时间是由一个随机过程产生的，其中维修时间与故障时的风险率有关。这在系统的后期阶段延长了维修时间，但在具有浴缸形状危险系数函数的系统中，也适应了年轻时的长维修时间。我们得到了模型的一组特例的解析结果，说明了如何进行模拟和推理，并将我们的方法应用于来自大型汽车制造商的真实数据。
It is common in the literature on the reliability and maintenance of repairable systems to model the repair times as instantaneous. However, this is an unreasonable assumption for some complex systems, especially those requiring a high level of reliability, and such systems may spend a significant proportion of their lifetimes under maintenance and repair. We model the ageing of such a system with alternating stochastic processes. Operational times are generated at random and may have an increasing failure rate. Repair times are generated from a random process where the repair time is related to the hazard rate at failure. This yields lengthened repair times at late stages in a system subject to an increasing failure hazard rate but also accommodates long repair times at young ages in systems with a bathtub‐shaped hazard rate function. We derive analytic results for a set of special cases of the model, show how simulation and inference can be carried out, and apply our method to real data from a large car manufacturer.