Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Valin, Hugo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Frank, Stefan;Havlik, Petr;Valin, Hugo
农业甲烷和一氧化二氮排放量约占人为温室气体排放总量的 10-12%，在实现 1.5 摄氏度（高于工业化前）气候稳定目标方面发挥着关键作用。我们采用多模型评估方法，量化农业对 1.5 摄氏度目标的潜在贡献，并按排放源、区域和缓解机制分解缓解潜力。结果表明，畜牧业对于实现1.5摄氏度目标的减排至关重要，主要通过减排技术或结构变革。到 2050 年，农业可减少 0.8-1.4 Gt CO2 当量 (CO(2)e) yr(-1) 的排放量，每 tCO(2)e 仅花费 20 美元。结合饮食变化，减排量可增加至 1.7-1.8 GtCO(2)e yr(-1)。在碳价格与 1.5 摄氏度目标相一致的情况下，农业甚至可以在 2050 年平均减排 3.9 GtCO(2)e yr(-1)，相当于当前温室气体排放量的 8% 左右。
Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10-12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 degrees C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 degrees C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8-1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO(2)e) yr(-1) at just US$20 per tCO(2)e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7-1.8 GtCO(2)e yr(-1). At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 degrees C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO(2)e yr(-1) in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.