How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap?
How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap?
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278
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发表时间：
2021-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Modi, Vijay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doss-Gollin, James;Farnham, David J.;Modi, Vijay
2021年2月，冬季风暴乌里给美国南部带来了严寒，导致德克萨斯州相互依存的系统发生级联故障，基础设施没有为这种寒冷做好充分准备。特别是，在供暖需求激增之际，相互关联的能源系统的故障限制了电力供应，导致数百万德克萨斯州人失去供暖或电力，许多人甚至好几天都没有电。这引发了这样一个问题：历史上的风暴是否表明这种温度是已知的，如果是的话，发生的频率是多少？我们计算了一个基于温度的供暖需求指标，并使用这个指标来回答这样一个问题：如果今天的人口发生历史性的寒流，供暖总需求会是什么？我们发现，在2021年12月的一场风暴期间，所服务的地区的当地气温和推断的人均供暖需求比2021年2月期间更严重，1951年和1983年的寒流几乎同样严重。考虑到预期的人口增长，如果不进行适应性投资，未来的风暴可能会导致更严重的基础设施故障。此外，电力系统经理应该为供暖电气化的趋势做好准备，以在严重的冬季风暴期间推动德克萨斯互联的年度高峰负荷。
Winter storm Uri brought severe cold to the southern United States in February 2021, causing a cascading failure of interdependent systems in Texas where infrastructure was not adequately prepared for such cold. In particular, the failure of interconnected energy systems restricted electricity supply just as demand for heating spiked, leaving millions of Texans without heat or electricity, many for several days. This motivates the question: did historical storms suggest that such temperatures were known to occur, and if so with what frequency? We compute a temperature-based proxy for heating demand and use this metric to answer the question 'what would the aggregate demand for heating have been had historic cold snaps occurred with today's population?'. We find that local temperatures and the inferred demand for heating per capita across the region served by the Texas Interconnection were more severe during a storm in December 1989 than during February 2021, and that cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were nearly as severe. Given anticipated population growth, future storms may lead to even greater infrastructure failures if adaptive investments are not made. Further, electricity system managers should prepare for trends in electrification of heating to drive peak annual loads on the Texas Interconnection during severe winter storms.