China's Challenge to US Hegemony
China's Challenge to US Hegemony
复制标题
中国对美国霸权的挑战
DOI：
10.1525/curh.2008.107.705.13
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
C. Layne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Layne
苏联的解体，使冷战时期的两极国际体系转变为美国主导的“单极”体系。上世纪90年代，美国外交政策界就美国冷战后的霸权能否长期维持，还是仅仅是一个“单极时刻”展开了激烈的辩论。冷战结束15年多来，美国的霸权显然不是一时的。事实上，当今政策制定者和外交政策学者的主流观点是，美国的经济、军事和技术优势如此之大，以至于美国的主导地位将在很长一段时间内受到挑战。然而，越来越多的证据表明，这种观点是错误的，事实上，美国霸权时代正在我们眼前结束。中国的崛起是最大的原因。尽管华盛顿目前对中东问题十分关注，但在未来几十年里，中国的大国崛起将是美国面临的重大战略问题。中国是否会像北京宣称的那样经历一个“和平崛起”是值得怀疑的。从历史上看，国际体系中新的权力两极的出现一直在地缘政治上造成不稳定。例如，世纪末德国、美国和日本的崛起导致了国际政治摩擦，最终导致了两次世界大战。没有理由相信中国的崛起会是一个例外。然而，尽管中国的崛起确实会引起地缘政治动荡，但中美战争并非不可避免。这种冲突是否会发生，将更多地取决于华盛顿的战略选择，而不是北京的选择。
The Soviet Union’s collapse transformed the bipolar cold war international system into a “unipolar” system dominated by the United States. During the 1990s, the us foreign policy community engaged in lively debate about whether America’s post–cold war hegemony could be sustained over the long haul or was merely a “unipolar moment.” More than 15 years after the cold war’s end, it is obvious that American hegemony has been more than momentary. Indeed, the prevailing view among policy makers and foreign policy scholars today is that America’s economic, military, and technological advantages are so great that it will be a long time before us dominance can be challenged. There is mounting evidence, however, that this view is mistaken, and that, in fact, the era of American hegemony is drawing to a close right before our eyes. The rise of China is the biggest reason for this. Notwithstanding Washington’s current preoccupation with the Middle East, in the coming decades China’s great power emergence will be the paramount issue of grand strategy facing the United States. Whether China will undergo a “peaceful rise”—as Beijing claims—is doubtful. Historically, the emergence of new poles of power in the international system has been geopolitically destabilizing. For example, the rise of Germany, the United States, and Japan at the end of the nineteenth century contributed to the international political frictions that culminated in two world wars. There is no reason to believe that China’s rise will be an exception. However, while it is certainly true that China’s rise will cause geopolitical turmoil, a Sino-American war is not inevitable. Whether such a conflict occurs will hinge more on Washington’s strategic choices than on Beijing’s.