A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation.
A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation.
复制标题
模拟简易核爆炸后果时多种行为模型的比较。
DOI：
10.1007/s10458-016-9331-y
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Swarup,Samarth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Parikh,Nidhi;Hayatnagarkar,HarshalG;Beckman,RichardJ;Marathe,MadhavV;Swarup,Samarth
我们描述了在华盛顿特区白宫附近的地面上进行的一次假设的10kT临时核爆炸的大规模模拟。我们采用综合信息方法，将多个数据集结合起来，以精确的人口统计数据以及交通、医疗、通信和电力等四种基础设施，构建该地区人口的综合表示。在本文中，我们将重点关注代理及其行为的模型，该模型使用选项框架表示。该模型模拟了六种不同的行为选择：家庭重建、疏散、寻求医疗保健、担忧、寻求庇护以及帮助他人。代理人的决策考虑了他们的健康状况、家庭成员信息、事件信息和当地环境。我们将这些行为选择组合成五种不同的行为模型，这些模型越来越复杂，并做了一些模拟来比较这些模型。
We describe a large-scale simulation of the aftermath of a hypothetical 10kT improvised nuclear detonation at ground level, near the White House in Washington DC. We take a synthetic information approach, where multiple data sets are combined to construct a synthesized representation of the population of the region with accurate demographics, as well as four infrastructures: transportation, healthcare, communication, and power. In this article, we focus on the model of agents and their behavior, which is represented using the options framework. Six different behavioral options are modeled: household reconstitution, evacuation, healthcare-seeking, worry, shelter-seeking, and aiding & assisting others. Agent decision-making takes into account their health status, information about family members, information about the event, and their local environment. We combine these behavioral options into five different behavior models of increasing complexity and do a number of simulations to compare the models.