Spatiotemporal variations of forest ecohydrological characteristics in the Lancang-Mekong region during 1992-2016 and 2020-2099 under different climate scenarios
Spatiotemporal variations of forest ecohydrological characteristics in the Lancang-Mekong region during 1992-2016 and 2020-2099 under different climate scenarios
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不同气候情景下1992-2016年和2020-2099年澜沧江-湄公河地区森林生态水文特征时空变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108662
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发表时间：
2021-10-01
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Ndayisaba, Felix
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kayiranga, Alphonse;Chen, Baozhang;Ndayisaba, Felix
分析森林生态水文特征的时空变化对于了解气候变化对森林生态功能的影响至关重要。本研究以森林总初级生产力（GPP）、生态系统水分平衡残差（eWBR）和生态系统水分利用效率（eWUE）为森林生态水文功能指标，以年平均降水量（MAP）和年平均气温（MAT）为气候指标，我们评估了1992 - 2016年气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河地区（LMR）森林生态系统的影响（基线）和2020-2099年在不同的代表性浓度路径（RCP）气候情景下的气候变化。采用CASA-GRAMI模型、InVEST模型和Hargrest-Sumani方法估算了GPP、eWBR、蒸散量（ET）和eWUE。主要研究结果如下：（i）1992-2099年期间，全球生产力、eWBR和eWUE在LMR西部地区呈上升趋势，缅甸中部和西南部、泰国西部和南部的数值较高;（ii）大多数情景下eWBR下降;而在RCP 2.6情景下，eWUE在2030年代（0.15 gC.kg（-1. H2O. yr（-1））和2050年代（0.13 gC.kg（-1. H2O. yr（-1）增加。（3gC.kg）在未来情景中，万年青和落叶阔叶林表现出较高的GPP值，而落叶阔叶林表现出最低的eWBR值，eWUE呈下降趋势;（iv）MAT与GPP、eWBR和eWUE呈显著相关（R-2 >0.70），MAP与GPP和eWUE呈一周相关（R-2
Analysis of spatiotemporal variations in forest ecohydrological characteristics is critical for understanding the impacts of climate change on forest ecological functions. In this study, using gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem water balance residual (eWBR) and ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) as forest ecohydrological function indices, and annual mean precipitation (MAP) and temperature (MAT) as climate indicators, we assessed the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem in the Lancang-Mekong Region (LMR) during 19922016 (baseline) and 2020-2099 under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios. The coupled Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approaches-Gramineous Crop Growth (CASA-GRAMI) model, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and the Hargreaves-Sumani method were employed to estimate GPP, eWBR, evapotranspiration (ET) and eWUE. The main findings are as follows: (i) GPP, eWBR and eWUE showed an increasing trend in the western parts of LMR during 1992-2099, with high values in the central and south-west of Myanmar, west and south of Thailand; (ii) eWBR decreased in most scenarios; while eWUE increases under RCP 2.6 scenario during 2030's (0.15 gC.kg(-1).H2O.yr(-1)) and 2050's (0.13 gC.kg(-1).H2O. yr(-1)) and slightly increases with a trend of 0.02 gC.kg(-1).H2O.yr(-1)) under RCP 8.5 scenario during 2050's; (iii) evergreen and deciduous broadleaved forests exhibit high GPP values, while deciduous broadleaved forest was characterized by lowest eWBR and declining trends in eWUE in future scenarios; (iv) MAT significantly correlated with GPP, eWBR and eWUE (R-2 >0.70) while MAP indicated a week correlation with GPP and eWUE (R-2