Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction
Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0008.1
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发表时间：
2019-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
A. Schweiger;K. Wood;Jinlun Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Schweiger;K. Wood;Jinlun Zhang
PIOMAS-20 C是利用ERA-20 C大气数据对泛北极冰洋模式和同化系统（PIOMAS）进行强迫处理后生成的一个1901-2010年北极海冰重建数据。ERA-20 C在北极海冰上的性能通过与其他再分析的测量和数据进行比较来评估。ERA-20 C表现出类似的下降流辐射，气温和风速的年周期与更广泛的数据同化，如ERA-Interim和MERRA再分析相比。然后将PIOMAS-20 C海冰厚度和体积与1950-2010年期间的原位和航空遥感观测进行比较。错误统计与PIOMAS相似。我们比较了20世纪世纪上半叶（1901-40）和最近时期（1980-2010）之间海冰变化的幅度和模式，两者都以北极海冰减少为标志。第一个时期包含所谓的世纪初变暖（ETCW; ~1920-40），在此期间大西洋地区的海冰量显着下降，但太平洋地区却没有。1979-2010年期间海冰的减少是泛北极的，比1901-40年期间的净减少量大6倍。仅从表面温度异常重建的海冰体积趋势小于PIOMAS-20 C，这表明除变暖以外的机制，如冰运动和变形的变化，在这两个时期内在确定海冰体积趋势方面发挥了重要作用。
PIOMAS-20C, an Arctic sea ice reconstruction for 1901–2010, is produced by forcing the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) with ERA-20C atmospheric data. ERA-20C performance over Arctic sea ice is assessed by comparisons with measurements and data from other reanalyses. ERA-20C performs similarly with respect to the annual cycle of downwelling radiation, air temperature, and wind speed compared to reanalyses with more extensive data assimilation such as ERA-Interim and MERRA. PIOMAS-20C sea ice thickness and volume are then compared with in situ and aircraft remote sensing observations for the period of ~1950–2010. Error statistics are similar to those for PIOMAS. We compare the magnitude and patterns of sea ice variability between the first half of the twentieth century (1901–40) and the more recent period (1980–2010), both marked by sea ice decline in the Arctic. The first period contains the so-called early-twentieth-century warming (ETCW; ~1920–40) during which the Atlantic sector saw a significant decline in sea ice volume, but the Pacific sector did not. The sea ice decline over the 1979–2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901–40 period. Sea ice volume trends reconstructed solely from surface temperature anomalies are smaller than PIOMAS-20C, suggesting that mechanisms other than warming, such as changes in ice motion and deformation, played a significant role in determining sea ice volume trends during both periods.