The prediction of violence and homicide in young men
The prediction of violence and homicide in young men
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DOI：
10.1037/0022-006x.73.6.1074
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Rosenfeld, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Loeber, R;Pardini, D;Rosenfeld, R
在这项前瞻性研究中，作者预测了 3 个代表性学校样本 (N = 1,517) 中的暴力和凶杀事件。参与者是宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡一项关于男孩从童年晚期到成年早期犯罪发展的纵向、多队列研究的一部分。 33 名参与者被判犯有杀人罪，193 名参与者被判犯有严重暴力罪，另有 498 名参与者自我报告有严重暴力行为。暴力的预测因素包括儿童、家庭、学校和人口特征领域的风险因素。与少于 4 个风险因素的男孩相比，具有 4 个或以上暴力风险因素的男孩日后实施暴力的可能性高出 6 倍（比值比 [OR] = 6.05）。与暴力相关的一部分风险因素也预测了暴力犯罪者的杀人行为。具有 4 个或以上杀人危险因素的男孩后来实施杀人的可能性是具有少于 4 个危险因素的暴力个体的 14 倍 (OR = 14.48)。讨论了对预防暴力和凶杀的影响。
In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.