Marine traffic model based on cellular automaton: Considering the change of the ship's velocity under the influence of the weather and sea
Marine traffic model based on cellular automaton: Considering the change of the ship's velocity under the influence of the weather and sea
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基于元胞自动机的海上交通模型：考虑天气和海况影响下船舶速度的变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.125
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gang Longhui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qi Le;Zheng Zhongyi;Gang Longhui
研究发现，风浪、海流、潮汐等天气和海浪对船舶航速的影响是显著的，在海上交通模型中必须加以考虑。为此，提出了一种新的基于元胞自动机的海上交通模型。该模型考虑了船舶航速变化的特点。首先，将船舶的加速度分解为规则分量和随机分量。其次，通过光谱分析、曲线拟合和自相关分析等方法确定了这两个分量的数学函数和统计分布参数。第三，通过将这两个组成部分结合起来，在船舶运动更新规则中重新生成加速度。为了验证模型的性能，对多佛海峡、长山海峡和琼州海峡的船舶交通流进行了研究和模拟。结果表明，仿真得到的船舶航速特性与自动识别系统(AIS)的实测值基本一致。虽然不同区域的交通流特性不同，但可以正确地模拟出船舶的速度。结果表明，该模型能较好地模拟受天气和海浪影响的船舶航速。
It was found that the ships’ velocity change, which is impacted by the weather and sea, e.g., wind, sea wave, sea current, tide, etc., is significant and must be considered in the marine traffic model. Therefore, a new marine traffic model based on cellular automaton (CA) was proposed in this paper. The characteristics of the ship’s velocity change are taken into account in the model. First, the acceleration of a ship was divided into two components: regular component and random component. Second, the mathematical functions and statistical distribution parameters of the two components were confirmed by spectral analysis, curve fitting and auto-correlation analysis methods. Third, by combining the two components, the acceleration was regenerated in the update rules for ships’ movement. To test the performance of the model, the ship traffic flows in the Dover Strait, the Changshan Channel and the Qiongzhou Strait were studied and simulated. The results show that the characteristics of ships’ velocities in the simulations are consistent with the measured data by Automatic Identification System (AIS). Although the characteristics of the traffic flow in different areas are different, the velocities of ships can be simulated correctly. It proves that the velocities of ships under the influence of weather and sea can be simulated successfully using the proposed model.