Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain
Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1038/nature03548
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发表时间：
2005-05-26
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Wint, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilbert, M;Mitchell, A;Wint, W
20年来，牛结核病（BTB）一直在英国（英格兰，威尔士和苏格兰）蔓延，现在在西南部和英格兰中部部分地区以及威尔士西南部流行，并在其他地方零星发生。虽然其传播途径仍然知之甚少，但以前通过使用环境变量及其季节性措施对疾病的分布进行了统计建模（1）。长期以来，受感染动物的移动一直被认为是牲畜疾病传播的一个关键因素，这反映在严格的进出口条例、2001年口蹄疫爆发期间实施的广泛移动限制（2，3）、新的BTB病例确诊后的追踪程序以及政府最近公布的可持续控制BTB的战略框架4中。自2001年1月以来，英国的牲畜饲养者必须将所有牛的出生、移动和死亡情况通知英国牛只移动服务处（5）。在这里，我们表明，牛追踪系统数据档案中记录的运动，特别是来自BTB报告地区的运动，始终优于环境，地形和其他人为变量作为疾病发生的主要预测因素。2002年和2003年的模拟分布模型，包括所有预测类别，并用于预测2004年和2005年的分布。
For 20 years, bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been spreading in Great Britain ( England, Wales and Scotland) and is now endemic in the southwest and parts of central England and in southwest Wales, and occurs sporadically elsewhere. Although its transmission pathways remain poorly understood, the disease's distribution was previously modelled statistically by using environmental variables and measures of their seasonality(1). Movements of infected animals have long been considered a critical factor in the spread of livestock diseases, as reflected in strict import/export regulations, the extensive movement restrictions imposed during the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak(2,3), the tracing procedures after a new case of BTB has been confirmed and the Government's recently published strategic framework for the sustainable control on BTB4. Since January 2001 it has been mandatory for stock-keepers in Great Britain to notify the British Cattle Movement Service of all cattle births, movements and deaths(5). Here we show that movements as recorded in the Cattle Tracing System data archive, and particularly those from areas where BTB is reported, consistently outperform environmental, topographic and other anthropogenic variables as the main predictor of disease occurrence. Simulation distribution models for 2002 and 2003, incorporating all predictor categories, are presented and used to project distributions for 2004 and 2005.