Changes in ecological, agricultural, and urban land space in 1984-2012 in China: land policies and regional social-economical drivers.
Changes in ecological, agricultural, and urban land space in 1984-2012 in China: land policies and regional social-economical drivers.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.10.010
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Jing Wang;Ting He;Yifan Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jing Wang;Ting He;Yifan Lin
近年来，全球和区域生态系统视角下的土地变化和生态系统服务研究受到世界范围的关注。土地空间是指在不同尺度上具有相似功能、用途和扰动特征的相邻土地利用单元的集群。然而，很少有研究基于准确可靠的全国土地调查数据，利用偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）分析方法综合全国范围内的生态、农业和城市土地空间变化及其社会经济驱动因素。本文分析了中国生态、农业和城市土地空间的时空变化和区域分异，讨论了土地政策对这些变化的影响，并识别了具有可变重要性投影（VIP）值的关键区域社会经济驱动因素。结果表明，1984年至2012年，生态用地和农业用地空间分别减少了0.85%和0.68%；城市用地面积增加1.53%。土地空间变化呈现时空分异特征，主要受经济水平和土地政策实施驱动。中国近30年的经济发展模式因生态和农业用地空间的快速消耗而无法持续。 1984年至2005年，生态用地空间面积有的地区和时期减少，有的地区和时期增加。但2005年至2012年，各地区生态用地空间面积均呈下降趋势，其中江浙沪、京津冀地区下降幅度较大。 1984年至2012年，除青藏地区外，各地区农业用地空间面积普遍下降，而各地区城市用地空间面积均有所增加。 1984-1996年、2000-2005年和2009-2012年三类土地空间变化率普遍较高，尤其是锦州山地区。一方面，国家和地区的土地政策导致了这些变化的时空分异。社会经济变量的区域差异是生态、农业和城市用地空间变化的重要特征之一。固定资产投资、经济密度、人均GDP对生态、农业和城市用地空间变化具有重要影响。另一方面，一些土地政策也存在一些问题和偏差。需要从生态角度优化不同区域的土地空间格局。中国必须实施分区控制制度、差别化的土地政策和自然生态系统保护。
Researches on land changes and ecosystem services from the perspective of global and regional ecosystems have received a worldwide attention in recent years. Land space refers to a cluster of adjacent land-use units with similar functions and uses and disturbance characteristics at various scales. However, few studies has focused on synthesizing ecological, agricultural, and urban land space changes and their socio-economic driving factors at national scale using partial least square regression (PLSR) analysis method based on accurate and reliable data from national land surveys. The paper analyzed the spatial-temporal changes and regional differentiation of ecological, agricultural, and urban land space in China and discussed the impacts of land policies on these changes and identified the key regional socio-economic driving factors with variable importance in projection (VIP) value. Results indicated that ecological and agricultural land space decreased by 0.85% and 0.68% from 1984 to 2012, respectively; while urban land space increased by 1.53%. The changes in land space were characterized with spatial-temporal differentiation, mainly driven by economic level and land policies implementation. Chinese last 30 years’ economic development mode has not been sustainable for rapidly consumption of ecological and agricultural land space. From 1984 to 2005, the area of ecological land space decreased in some regions and periods but increased in other regions and periods. However, from 2005 to 2012, the area of ecological land space decreased in all regions, with high rates in Jiangsu-Zhejing-Shanghai (JZS) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions. From 1984 to 2012, the area of agricultural land space generally decreased in all regions but Qinghai-Tibet (QT) region, while the area of urban land space increased in all regions. Change rates of three types of land space were generally high in the 1984–1996, 2000–2005, and 2009–2012 periods and especially in JZS region. On one hand, national and regional land policies resulted in the temporal-spatial differentiation of these changes. Regional difference of socio-economic variables was one important character of changes in ecological, agricultural and urban land space. Fixed asset investment, economic density, and per capita GDP had important effects on the changes in ecological, agricultural and urban land space. On the other hand, there were some problems and deviations for some land policies. It is necessary to optimize land spatial pattern in different regions from ecological perspective. A zoning control system and differentiated land policies and natural ecosystem protection must be implemented in China.